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For the first time in his second term, President Donald Trump was confronted by his fellow Republicans. And he fell in line.
Rather than face a massive defection of Republican votes in the House, Trump flipped to support a bill to force the Department of Justice to release non-classified files related to the convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein.
The flip-flop was a long time coming. The House of Representatives stayed out of session for more than a month during the government shutdown, which helped to shield Trump from this vote. After Trump ultimately endorsed the bill he had previously opposed, there was near-unanimity when the House voted on it Tuesday.
It now appears to be on a glide path to Trump’s desk.
It’s not clear that Trump will appear in the remainder of the files as he did in emails from Epstein’s estate released by the House Oversight Committee last week. But it’s definitely clear that Trump has no interest in continuing to talk about Epstein. When a reporter asked Trump in the Oval Office Tuesday why he doesn’t just release the files, he shot back that she was a bad reporter.
“Quiet, piggy,” was how he sternly reacted with a pointed finger to another reporter last week on Air Force One when she asked about the Epstein files.
The argument that seems to have convinced Republicans to break with Trump on releasing the Epstein files and vote was best expressed by Rep. Thomas Massie, the Kentucky Republican who has tangled with the administration on multiple issues.
“The deal for Republicans on this vote is that Trump will protect you if you vote the wrong way,” Massie told CNN’s Manu Raju last week. “In other words, if you vote to cover up for pedophiles, you’ve got cover in a Republican primary. But I would remind my colleagues that this vote is gonna be on your record for longer than Trump is gonna be president.”
Pair that sentiment with Trump’s recent acknowledgment that he will not be on the ballot in 2028, which means he won’t be president in 2029, and you have the makings of a lame-duck presidency.
There are other issues dividing the GOP, as CNN’s Aaron Blake noted Tuesday. In addition to the Epstein files, Republicans are grousing about Trump’s foreign focus; his apparent lack of understanding of the issue of affordability and how it relates to his tariff policy; the destruction of the White House East Wing; and the way his family is appearing to enrich itself.
Pretty much all of these issues were on display at Trump’s Oval Office appearance Monday, when he sat next to and defended Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.
None of this means that Republican lawmakers are going to turn on Trump en masse in the near future. But it does mean you will hear that term, lame duck, with more frequency.
Believe it or not, “lame duck” is a technical term in US politics. Historians in both the House and Senate track lame-duck terms.
To them, it refers to a politician in the period after their successor has been elected, but before that person is sworn in. The outgoing politician still technically has power, but is no longer really accountable to voters.
From a technical standpoint, no. US voters will vote twice before Trump leaves office: in midterms next year and the general election to replace him in 2028. His presidency will play a factor in both of those elections. The government will have to be funded each year, and natural disasters and other events will require leadership.
But the term also has a more colloquial meaning that refers to anyone who can’t be reelected. That included Trump starting on Day 1 of his second term. But his superpower in recent years has been his hold over the Republican Party. That power, at least in theory, will fade a smidge every time he asks Republican lawmakers to do something voters will not like.
Just because a president is losing power does not mean there is nothing important going on. The ultimate lame-duck disaster occurred in 1860, after the election of Abraham Lincoln but before he was sworn in. That’s when Southern states started seceding from the union, starting with South Carolina in December.
George W. Bush ushered in a bailout to the financial system during the Great Recession just before his successor, Barack Obama, was elected.
The 20th Amendment to the Constitution was ratified in 1933 in part to shorten the length of lame-duck sessions. Originally, in the pre-modern horse-and-buggy era, unless the president called Congress into session earlier, lawmakers would not convene for a new Congress until 13 months after Election Day.
There’s a lot more time than that — a little less than 36 months — until the next presidential election.
