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Analysis: Is Trump a lame duck now? | CNN Politics

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Analysis: Is Trump a lame duck now? | CNN Politics

A version of this story appeared in CNN’s What Matters newsletter. To get it in your inbox, sign up for free here.

For the first time in his second term, President Donald Trump was confronted by his fellow Republicans. And he fell in line.

Rather than face a massive defection of Republican votes in the House, Trump flipped to support a bill to force the Department of Justice to release non-classified files related to the convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein.

The flip-flop was a long time coming. The House of Representatives stayed out of session for more than a month during the government shutdown, which helped to shield Trump from this vote. After Trump ultimately endorsed the bill he had previously opposed, there was near-unanimity when the House voted on it Tuesday.

It now appears to be on a glide path to Trump’s desk.

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It’s not clear that Trump will appear in the remainder of the files as he did in emails from Epstein’s estate released by the House Oversight Committee last week. But it’s definitely clear that Trump has no interest in continuing to talk about Epstein. When a reporter asked Trump in the Oval Office Tuesday why he doesn’t just release the files, he shot back that she was a bad reporter.

“Quiet, piggy,” was how he sternly reacted with a pointed finger to another reporter last week on Air Force One when she asked about the Epstein files.

The argument that seems to have convinced Republicans to break with Trump on releasing the Epstein files and vote was best expressed by Rep. Thomas Massie, the Kentucky Republican who has tangled with the administration on multiple issues.

“The deal for Republicans on this vote is that Trump will protect you if you vote the wrong way,” Massie told CNN’s Manu Raju last week. “In other words, if you vote to cover up for pedophiles, you’ve got cover in a Republican primary. But I would remind my colleagues that this vote is gonna be on your record for longer than Trump is gonna be president.”

Pair that sentiment with Trump’s recent acknowledgment that he will not be on the ballot in 2028, which means he won’t be president in 2029, and you have the makings of a lame-duck presidency.

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There are other issues dividing the GOP, as CNN’s Aaron Blake noted Tuesday. In addition to the Epstein files, Republicans are grousing about Trump’s foreign focus; his apparent lack of understanding of the issue of affordability and how it relates to his tariff policy; the destruction of the White House East Wing; and the way his family is appearing to enrich itself.

Pretty much all of these issues were on display at Trump’s Oval Office appearance Monday, when he sat next to and defended Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.

None of this means that Republican lawmakers are going to turn on Trump en masse in the near future. But it does mean you will hear that term, lame duck, with more frequency.

Believe it or not, “lame duck” is a technical term in US politics. Historians in both the House and Senate track lame-duck terms.

To them, it refers to a politician in the period after their successor has been elected, but before that person is sworn in. The outgoing politician still technically has power, but is no longer really accountable to voters.

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From a technical standpoint, no. US voters will vote twice before Trump leaves office: in midterms next year and the general election to replace him in 2028. His presidency will play a factor in both of those elections. The government will have to be funded each year, and natural disasters and other events will require leadership.

But the term also has a more colloquial meaning that refers to anyone who can’t be reelected. That included Trump starting on Day 1 of his second term. But his superpower in recent years has been his hold over the Republican Party. That power, at least in theory, will fade a smidge every time he asks Republican lawmakers to do something voters will not like.

Just because a president is losing power does not mean there is nothing important going on. The ultimate lame-duck disaster occurred in 1860, after the election of Abraham Lincoln but before he was sworn in. That’s when Southern states started seceding from the union, starting with South Carolina in December.

George W. Bush ushered in a bailout to the financial system during the Great Recession just before his successor, Barack Obama, was elected.

The 20th Amendment to the Constitution was ratified in 1933 in part to shorten the length of lame-duck sessions. Originally, in the pre-modern horse-and-buggy era, unless the president called Congress into session earlier, lawmakers would not convene for a new Congress until 13 months after Election Day.

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There’s a lot more time than that — a little less than 36 months — until the next presidential election.

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Judge says she won’t halt the immigration enforcement surge as a lawsuit proceeds

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Judge says she won’t halt the immigration enforcement surge as a lawsuit proceeds

A photo of Renee Good is displayed in front of a home on Saturday, Jan. 31, 2026, in Minneapolis.

Alex Brandon/AP


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Alex Brandon/AP

MINNEAPOLIS — A federal judge says she won’t halt the immigration enforcement surge in Minnesota and the Twin Cities as a lawsuit over it proceeds.

Judge Katherine M. Menendez on Saturday denied a preliminary injunction sought in a lawsuit filed this month by state Attorney General Keith Ellison and the mayors of Minneapolis and St. Paul.

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It argued that the Department of Homeland Security is violating constitutional protections. The lawsuit sought a quick order to halt the enforcement action or limit its scope. Lawyers with the U.S. Department of Justice have called the lawsuit “legally frivolous.”

The ruling on the injunction focused on the argument by Minnesota officials that the federal government is violating the Constitution’s 10th Amendment, which limits the federal government’s powers to infringe on the sovereignty of states. In her ruling, the judge relied heavily on whether that argument was likely to ultimately succeed in court.

The federal government argued that the surge, dubbed Operation Metro Surge, is necessary in its effort to take criminal immigrants off the streets and because federal efforts have been hindered by state and local “sanctuary laws and policies.” State and local officials argued that the surge is retaliation after the federal government’s initial attempts to withhold federal funding to try to force immigration cooperation failed.

“Because there is evidence supporting both sides’ arguments as to motivation and the relative merits of each side’s competing positions are unclear, the Court is reluctant to find that the likelihood-of-success factor weighs sufficiently in favor of granting a preliminary injunction.”

U.S. Attorney General Pam Bondi took to social media Saturday to laud the ruling, calling it “another HUGE” legal win for the Justice Department on X.

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Federal officers have fatally shot two people on the streets of Minneapolis: Renee Good on Jan. 7 and Alex Pretti on Jan. 24.

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Anti-ICE protests take place across US for ‘National Shutdown’

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Anti-ICE protests take place across US for ‘National Shutdown’

Local businesses across the US forwent income for the day to protest the Trump administration’s immigration crackdown and the fatal shooting of Renee Good and Alex Pretti by federal agents in Minneapolis.

In what was billed a “National Shutdown,” organizers called for a 24-hour general strike, asking students to skip school, business owners to close up shop, and consumers to refrain from spending for the day.

Some small and medium-sized businesses from coast to coast posted on their social media stating that they’d be closed on Friday as part of the demonstrations. Others said that they’d remain open to support their workers, but showed support for the protests.

Touchstone Climbing, a popular California-based climbing gym with about 20 locations, posted on social media that its gyms were closed and that hourly employees scheduled to work on Friday would be paid.


A woman holds an

A protester in New York City holds an “ICE out” sign.

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Medium, an online publishing company, told employees that they were free to take Friday off to participate in the protests.

Photos show crowds of demonstrators holding signs that said “ICE Out” and gathering in Los Angeles, Washington, DC, New York City, Boston, and Minneapolis, among other cities.

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The protests come amid growing tensions in communities where the Trump administration has deployed federal agents. Many of the high-profile enforcement efforts have been concentrated in blue or so-called sanctuary cities.

In Minneapolis, two US residents, Good and Pretti, were fatally shot after a confrontation with federal agents that occurred within a span of a few weeks.


Aerial view of a crowd of protesters.

A large crowd of protesters gather in Minneapolis to protest the fatal shooting of Alex Pretti and Renee Good.

John Moore/Getty Images



Hundreds of local businesses in Minnesota participated in an economic blackout last week, shuttering their stores for a day following the shootings. The Minneapolis Regional Labor Federation, which is tied to AFL-CIO, the largest labor union in the US, endorsed the general strike.

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The Department of Justice announced on Friday that it opened a civil rights investigation into the shooting of Pretti, a 37-year-old registered nurse who was killed by a Border Patrol agent.

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Map: 2.4-Magnitude Earthquake Reported in New Jersey

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Map: 2.4-Magnitude Earthquake Reported in New Jersey

Note: Map shows the area with a shake intensity of 3 or greater, which U.S.G.S. defines as “weak,” though the earthquake may be felt outside the areas shown.  All times on the map are Eastern. The New York Times

A minor, 2.4-magnitude earthquake struck in New Jersey on Friday, according to the United States Geological Survey.

The temblor happened at 3:42 p.m. Eastern about 4 miles northeast of Whitehouse Station, N.J., or about 35 miles west of Manhattan, data from the agency shows.

As seismologists review available data, they may revise the earthquake’s reported magnitude. Additional information collected about the earthquake may also prompt U.S.G.S. scientists to update the shake-severity map.

Source: United States Geological Survey | Notes: Shaking categories are based on the Modified Mercalli Intensity scale. When aftershock data is available, the corresponding maps and charts include earthquakes within 100 miles and seven days of the initial quake. All times above are Eastern. Shake data is as of Friday, Jan. 30 at 3:59 p.m. Eastern. Aftershocks data is as of Friday, Jan. 30 at 5:58 p.m. Eastern.

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