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Financial conditions turn negative amid risks of trade war

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Financial conditions turn negative amid risks of trade war

Friday was another in the series of dramatic losses in the equity markets as investors pushed financial conditions into negative terrain because of mounting concerns around the costs linked to an expanding trade war.

Given the ever-widening scope of U.S. tariffs, with the next round set to take effect on April 2, the risks to the economic outlook through the financial channel are elevated and rising.

We anticipate that the economies targeted by the tariffs will retaliate in-kind. investors, firm managers and policymakers should also anticipate that retaliation will most likely include the tradeable services sector and not just agriculture, goods and politically sensitive industries like transportation.

Read more of RSM’s insights on the economy and the middle market.

The S&P 500 equity index peaked on Feb. 19 and has since lost 9% of its value with losses in seven of the past nine weekly sessions. On Friday alone, roughly $1.25 trillion in equity valuations were wiped away.

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Interestingly, the Russell 2000 index of small cap corporations—a proxy for the health of privately held small and medium-sized businesses—has lost the most ground among the major stock indices.

The RTY index has now lost 17% of its value since peaking on Nov. 25, suggesting a loss of confidence in economic growth that will result in a slower pace of hiring and outlays on capital expenditures that will show up in hard data in the near term.

It is not just the equity market showing excessive levels of risk. Volatility in the Treasury market remains above its long-term average and corporate yield spreads are widening, offering more evidence of the concern over the direction of the economy.

While not yet significantly different than neutral, our RSM US Financial Conditions Index fell below zero on the last Friday of March.

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Our index is designed such that negative values indicate increased levels of risk being priced into financial assets. Higher risk implies a higher cost of credit, which will affect the willingness to borrow or to lend that will hamper economic growth.

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Finance

Low-income Chinese girl aces gaokao, inspires live-streamers offering help

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Low-income Chinese girl aces gaokao, inspires live-streamers offering help

A girl from a disadvantaged rural family in central China topped this year’s gaokao, attracting numerous live-streamers eager to finance her education, which she declined.

The home of 18-year-old secondary school graduate Han Yaping in a Henan province village was recently bustling with live-streamers.

This attention came after Han achieved an impressive score of 699 out of 750 in the gaokao, China’s national college entrance exam.

She has received offers from China’s two leading universities, Tsinghua University and Peking University.

Han’s accomplishment is particularly remarkable given her family’s impoverished circumstances.

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Her mother suffers from ankylosing spondylitis, an inflammatory arthritis affecting the spine, preventing her from working. Her father, who earns a living through farming and odd jobs, serves as the family’s sole provider. Han also has a younger sister.

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Finance

UK financial regulator publishes landmark AI review

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UK financial regulator publishes landmark AI review

The UK’s Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) published a landmark review on Monday that proposes recommendations to regulate the impact of artificial intelligence (AI) on the financial decisions made by consumers.

The review, titled the Mills Review, anticipates that both consumers and firms will start delegating “more financial decision-making to AI systems,” including for agreements, initiating transactions, and executing decisions “within agreed parameters.” One of the key findings of the review outlined that while AI can help bridge advice gaps and “support growth,” there remain risks “associated with fraud, cyber security, and consumer harm.” Conducting the review, Sheldon Mills highlighted that “AI can also amplify risks: bias, discrimination, exclusion, opaque decision-making (particularly when multiple AI models interact), misleading or hallucinatory advice and erosion of consumer trust.”

The review stated that presently, one in five adults in the UK are “already open to AI making decisions for them,” particularly when decisions feel “complex or high stakes.” It found that roughly 26 percent of the population “trust general-purpose tools such as ChatGPT, Claude or Gemini for financial advice” with little awareness that such platforms provide no “formal routes to recourse” or protections.

Overall, the Mills Review identified four areas that it anticipates will be impacted by AI in the financial sector: “the transformation of firms,” “new consumer journeys,” “a reshaped competition landscape,” and “amplified financial crime and cyber risk.” The FCA projected the shift in how consumers and firms consult AI to take place by 2030.

The Mills Review put forth seven “priority” recommendations to be considered by the FCA Board. It recommended that any transitions to autonomous AI models be monitored and that regulatory frameworks and perimeters be adapted and secured. The review called for the strengthening of “system-wide coordination and oversight,” the scaling up of the FCA’s AI Lab to enable it to support AI models and innovation for agentic finance, and an “AI-enabled agentic supervisory model” to be built and adopted.   Finally, it recommended that a trusted “public-interest AI-enabled financial capability service” be developed.

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The FCA announced, in the press release, that it will launch an AI “good and poor practice publication” in late 2026.

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Finance

Fayette County Public Schools Board of Education approves audit contract, new finance director position

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Fayette County Public Schools Board of Education approves audit contract, new finance director position

LEXINGTON, Ky. (WKYT) – The Fayette County Public Schools Board of Education approved a one-year audit contract capped at $131,750 plus $225 per hour during a virtual meeting Monday, along with a new finance director job description.

The contract is with Mauldin & Jenkins Certified Public Accountants, an Atlanta-based firm, and covers the 2025-26 fiscal year and the restatement of the 2024-25 fiscal year and ancillary services through FY 2029-2030. The work is set to be completed by Nov. 15.

The board approved the contract in a 5-0 vote.

Audit contract details

Interim Chief Financial Officer Kyna Koch said the cost is already accounted for in the district’s budget.

“And is actually less than we expected given our current situation — we were thrilled with the bid,” Koch said.

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Koch said she believes this is Mauldin & Jenkins’ first school district audit in Kentucky, but that the firm works with school districts of more than 100,000 students throughout the Southeast.

“Quite frankly when I spoke to the folks at KDE they were thrilled because we’re running kind of short of auditors who want to do school district audits — so all around I think this was a win-win for everyone,” Koch said.

New finance director position

The board also approved a new job description for the position of Director of Finance. Acting Superintendent Dr. Bill Bradford said the title will replace two associate director positions.

“Which will not only save the school district money but it’s also going to streamline our work and align internal controls to make room for a more efficient unit,” Bradford said.

Koch said the position will be posted as soon as possible following the board’s approval.

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Closed session

The board went into closed session for more than an hour to discuss pending investigations that could lead to employee discipline. When the board returned, it took no action and adjourned the meeting.

Copyright 2026 WKYT. All rights reserved.

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