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UGA economists peer into crystal ball and see slowing Georgia economy in 2025

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UGA economists peer into crystal ball and see slowing Georgia economy in 2025


Georgia’s economic growth could slow down in the new year, University of Georgia economists predict, but Georgia could fare better than the nation as a whole, even as questions loom about the financial policies of President-elect Donald Trump.

The state’s economy is projected to expand by 2.4% next year, down from 3.1% this year, said Terry College of Business Dean Ben Ayers at a 2025 Georgia Economic Outlook presentation in Atlanta Friday. Nationwide, Ayers expects the growth rate to slow from 2.5% on average to 1.6%

“On the positive side, we’re expecting again the state of Georgia to outperform the nation,” he said, speaking to a crowd of business leaders at the Georgia Aquarium in Atlanta. “And the slowdown that we’re expecting will be smaller here in the state of Georgia.”

Ayers said the major driver of the slowdown is the Federal Reserve’s 2022 efforts to constrain lending to control inflation. Inflation has dropped from 8% to 3% since then, and the rate is expected to stay at 3% in 2025. The inflation rate at the start of 2020 was 2.3%, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

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The risk of a recession beginning in 2025 is about one in four, Ayers predicts, which is higher than the baseline of one in six, but an improvement over this year’s odds, which were one in three. Potential risk factors for a recession include an energy price shock, stock market crash or expansion of conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East.

Georgia’s unemployment rate is expected to average 4% next year, higher than this year’s 3.7%, but still better than the expected national average of 4.3%.

New jobs are also expected to shrink, from about 1.5% growth to about 1%, again better than the expected national rate of .6%.

If you’re looking for work in healthcare home building, 2025 could be the year of your big break

A growing and aging population is expected to bolster healthcare hiring around the state, while lower mortgage rates, favorable demographic trends and a lingering housing shortage should mean plenty of jobs for home builders.

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The number of single-family homes in Georgia is set to go up by 9%, but if you’ve been waiting to buy a home, you may have to keep waiting – home prices, which have increased by 65% since the pandemic, according to UGA, are expected to hold steady.

Those who work in retail or in information may be at greater risk as competition from online retailers and technological advances squeeze those sectors.

The Trump Factor

On the campaign trail, Trump pledged to support policies that could reshape the economy in a big-league way, including tariffs on imported goods that economists warn could make the stuff Americans buy more expensive.

Economist John Silva did not call out Trump by name, but said that if those proposed tariffs become reality, Americans could pay more for products that are not naturally found in the U.S., including auto parts, clothing and types of lumber used for building homes.

“What do tariffs do? They basically raise the price,” said Silvia, Florida-based CEO and founder of Dynamic Economic Strategy. “In the short run, your inflation numbers accelerate because you calculate year over year, but in the long run, prices stay higher than what they were originally. This presents a problem.”

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“We don’t produce bananas in Georgia, OK?” he added. “And except for Hawaii, we don’t produce coffee in the United States. So you’re going to put a tariff on all these goods, and then someone walks into the grocery store and it says ‘Honduran bananas, plus 15 cents for your tariff.’ How’s that going to work?”

Trump also pledged to deport millions of immigrants living in the country illegally. What his actual immigration policy looks like could spell weal or woe for industries like agriculture and construction, Silvia said.

“We’re not gonna get the job done if you’re gonna tell me all these immigrants have to leave,” he said. “It’s not gonna happen, and it’s not gonna happen in Texas, it’s not gonna happen in California. So what are we going to get in terms of an immigration policy? It has to be somehow defined over the next six months to a year, and that policy’s going to define our agricultural output and our manufacturing and construction output over the next two to five years.”

This story was provided by WABE content partner the Georgia Recorder.



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Georgia

Wildfires burning across Georgia and Florida destroy homes and force evacuations

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Wildfires burning across Georgia and Florida destroy homes and force evacuations


Wildfires burning across the south-eastern US intensified on Wednesday across parts of south-east Georgia, where 50 homes were destroyed, and across north-east Florida, forcing evacuations and school closures in some communities.

The Georgia forestry commission issued its first mandatory burn ban in the state’s history, effective across 91 counties in the lower half of the state, due to worsening drought conditions and rising wildfire activity.

“My office and I are working closely with the Georgia Forestry Commission to respond to the increasing threat of wildfires in South Georgia,” Governor Brian Kemp wrote on X. ”If you are in a directly affected area, please adhere to guidance from your local officials to keep you and your family safe.”

Smoke from the fires drifted to Atlanta and Savannah, Georgia, as well as Jacksonville, Florida, while air quality in parts of south Georgia declined to the unhealthy category.

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Smoky conditions were expected to linger in the Atlanta area throughout the day, according to the Atlanta-Fulton county emergency management agency, as the worst blazes burned more than 200 miles from the city.

Some of the biggest blazes are reported to be along Georgia’s coast and around Jacksonville, Florida. They have been exacerbated by a long drought, low humidity and strong winds in the area.

Georgia’s two biggest wildfires together have burned more than 31 sq miles, and at least four other smaller fires have been reported.

Drought in the contiguous US has reached record levels for this time of year. More than 61% of the lower 48 states are in moderate to exceptional drought – including 97% of the south-east and two-thirds of the west – according to the US Drought Monitor. It’s the highest level of drought for this time of year since the drought monitor began in 2000.

Florida, the area where the worst fires are burning, is in exceptional or extreme drought, according to the monitor. Firefighters are battling 131 wildfires that had burned 34 sq miles, mostly in the state’s northern half.

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Firefighting equipment was being staged across the state so resources are closer to the fires, the Florida commissioner of agriculture, Wilton Simpson, said.

“Florida has got one of the worst fire seasons in maybe the last 30 or 40 years or it’s turning out to be that way,” Simpson said. “We’ve been in drought for 18 months now all across the state.”

The fast-moving Brantley county fire in south-east Georgia is threatening more homes on Wednesday after destroying 47 a day earlier, according to the county manager, Joey Cason, who said the fire grew roughly six times in size over a half day. Nearly two dozen fire agencies called in to help fight the blaze, Cason said at a news conference. At least 800 evacuations have taken place in the county and five shelters have opened, as the fire threatens 300 more homes, the Federal Emergency Management Agency said.

The Brantley county sheriff, Len Davis, warned residents to be ready to evacuate, noting that the winds could shift rapidly and unexpectedly.

Another large fire that started in Clinch county had also forced evacuations, which were underway in multiple communities, the Georgia forestry association said.

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“This is a serious and evolving situation,” said Tim Lowrimore, president & CEO of the association.



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Man accused in fatal Georgia shooting spree dies in jail, officials say

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Man accused in fatal Georgia shooting spree dies in jail, officials say


(WSAV) — The man accused of shooting and killing three people in Dekalb County April 13 was found dead in his jail cell, officials confirmed Monday night.

Olaolukitan Adon-Abel was found unresponsive in his jail cell at 6:48 p.m., a Dekalb County Sheriff’s Office spokesperson said. Life-saving measures were performed, according to officials.

He was pronounced dead at 7:17 p.m.

Adon-Abel was charged with malice murder, aggravated assault and firearms counts in connection to the shooting deaths of Prianna Weathers, Tony Mathews and Lauren Bullis.

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In 2025, Adon-Abel plead guilty in Chatham County Recorder’s Court to multiple misdemeanor counts of sexual battery for groping women in Chatham County under the name Adon Olaolukitan.

According to court documents, he was banned from Savannah for four years and ordered to undergo a psychosexual evaluation.

The official cause will be determined by the DeKalb County Medical Examiner’s Office, and a standard internal review has been launched, according to officials.

At this time, the sheriff’s office said there are no indications of foul play. No additional details were released.

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2026 NFL Draft Scouting Report — Christen Miller, DT, Georgia

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2026 NFL Draft Scouting Report — Christen Miller, DT, Georgia


If you want proof that context matters in NFL Draft evaluation, look no further than Christen Miller’s career arc at Georgia. He arrived in Athens as a four-star recruit and spent his first two years buried behind first-round picks Jordan Davis, Devonte Wyatt, and Jalen Carter — three players who all heard their names called on Day 1.

The defensive tackle assembly line at Georgia is nothing short of extraordinary, and Miller patiently waited his turn. By 2024, his turn had arrived, and what NFL scouts saw was a prototypically built interior defender who carries his 321-pound frame with impressive athleticism and natural leverage.

Miller’s greatest asset is his run defense. He is a solid anchor — quick to press his hands into blockers, disciplined about maintaining gap integrity, and stout enough to hold the point of attack against double teams that would cave lesser prospects — but he’s not dominant.

His lateral mobility is a genuine differentiator for a man his size; he can scrape down the line to close on outside runs or loop inside on stunts without losing his footing or pad level.

That combination of power and movement is why Georgia trusted him on the field for passing downs, and it’s why scouts project him as an immediate contributor against the run at the NFL level.

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The legitimate questions surrounding Miller center on his pass-rush production and his still-developing anticipation skills. Over his entire collegiate career, he accumulated only four sacks — never cracking two in a single season.

Still, Miller’s athleticism stands out immediately — he carries his size well and shows the lateral quickness you don’t always find at his frame. His hands have some pop, and he’s flashed the ability to jolt interior linemen off their spot. But he’s a prospect defined more by his floor than his ceiling.

Source: Mockdraftable

No single trait rises above average, which means his pass-rush production will hinge on technique and motor rather than any physical advantage. He also needs to improve as a finisher — getting close isn’t enough at the next level.

The traits for pass-rush development are present: he has good first-step quickness, flashes as a one-gap penetrator, and showed enough in stunt packages to keep offensive linemen honest. But he has yet to build a consistent, go-to counter move when his initial rush is neutralized. Against better competition, his reaction time to the snap can be late, and he can drift out of his gap assignment when he tries to freelance for a big play.

What Miller offers any franchise is a high floor with a realistic upside trajectory. He comes from one of college football’s most technically demanding defensive line programs, coached by coaches who regularly develop NFL talent.

He plays with a motor that never stops. He competed in SEC trenches for two-plus seasons and was named to the All-SEC First Team as a senior. The experience and winning culture he brings — two state championships in high school, a national championship at Georgia — will matter to coaches who value locker-room character.

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The ceiling here isn’t flashy, but it’s tangible: a reliable, two-down starting defensive tackle who keeps blocks clean and lets linebackers run free. In a league that increasingly prizes versatile, multi-technique interior linemen, Miller’s ability to play the nose or the B-gap makes him a schematic asset for even-front and two-gap systems. Don’t sleep on him because his sack totals are modest — evaluating him solely by that metric would miss the forest for the trees.

Miller’s fit in Green Bay is an interesting one. The Packers are switching to a 3-4 base defense under new defensive coordinator Jonathan Gannon, and they lack a proven run-stuffing nose tackle while being long overdue for a meaningful investment on the defensive interior — which is exactly the profile Miller fits.

The team brought him in for a pre-draft visit, signaling genuine interest, and his skill set maps cleanly onto what Green Bay needs. His calling card — an elite run defense grade that ranked second among all FBS defensive tackles — translates directly to what Gannon will ask of his interior linemen, and his versatility to play nose in an odd front or kick out to three-technique in sub packages only adds to the appeal.



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