Georgia
Georgia vs. Florida score prediction by expert football model
The World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party gets underway this weekend as No. 2 Georgia faces off against SEC rival Florida on Saturday. Let’s check in with the latest prediction for the game from an expert football model that projects scores and picks winners.
Georgia improved to 4-1 in SEC play two weeks ago in a signature victory at Texas that salvaged the team’s playoff hopes but there are tougher tests ahead before the selection committee sorts it all out.
Florida moved to 4-3 on the year with a 2-2 mark in conference games after knocking off rival Kentucky and is a respectable 34th nationally in passing output with 264 yards per game, averaging almost 31 points per game heading into the most brutal portion of any schedule in college football this season, playing 4 ranked opponents over the final 5 weeks of the year.
What do the analytical models suggest for when the Bulldogs and Gators renew their rivalry this weekend?
For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Georgia and Florida compare in this Week 10 college football rivalry game.
As expected, the models are favoring the Bulldogs over the Gators, but in a closely-fought game.
SP+ predicts that Georgia will defeat Florida by a projected score of 34 to 22 and will win the matchup by an expected margin of 12.5 points.
The model gives the Bulldogs a strong 78 percent chance of outright victory over the Gators.
SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”
How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 239-221-5 against the spread with a 51.9 win percentage after going 28-27-1 (50.9%) last weekend.
Georgia is a 14.5 point favorite against Florida, according to the updated lines posted at FanDuel Sportsbook.
FanDuel set the total at 51.5 points for the game (Over -110, Under -110).
And it lists the moneyline odds for Georgia at -630 and for Florida at +460 to win outright.
If you’re using this prediction to bet on the game, you should take …
If you do, you’ll be in the minority of bettors, who expect the Bulldogs will dominate the Gators, according to the latest spread consensus picks for the game.
Georgia is getting 64 percent of bets to win the game and cover the big spread.
The other 36 percent of wagers project Florida will either win outright in an upset, or more likely, will keep the score to 2 touchdowns or fewer in a prospective loss.
Georgia has played some closer games this season, coming out 11.3 points ahead of its opponents this season when averaging out the scoring margins in wins and losses.
Florida has fared 2.2 points better than its opponents on average in 2024.
Those figures have grown closer over the last three games, however.
Georgia has been 14.3 points better than the competition over that span, and Florida has improved to being 11 points better than opponents over that time.
Georgia is averaging 30.5 points per game this season, compared to Florida at 28.5 points per game on average.
Defensively, the Bulldogs are surrendering 19.2 points per game and the Gators are allowing 26.3 points per game on average.
Most other analytical models also suggest the Bulldogs will take down the Gators this week.
That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.
Georgia came out ahead in the majority 79.9 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations of the matchup.
That leaves Florida as the presumptive winner in the remaining 20.1 percent of sims.
How does that translate into a margin of victory? The index forecasts that the Gators will take the points this week.
Georgia is projected to be 12.4 points better than Florida on the same field in both teams’ current composition, according to the model’s latest forecast.
Georgia is first among SEC teams with an 84.5 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff, according to the FPI’s metrics.
That model projects the Bulldogs will win 10 games this season.
Florida could struggle getting to bowl eligibility, according to the index’s calculations entering this weekend.
The Gators are projected to win 5.7 games and have a 54.7 percent chance to become eligible for a bowl game.
When: Sat., Nov. 2
Time: 3:30 p.m. Eastern
TV: ABC network
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Georgia
Meet the 30-somethings aiming to remake Georgia’s congressional delegation
Midterm elections could bring a generational shift to Georgia’s delegation in Washington.
U.S House candidate Jim Kingston at an automotive construction site in Savannah, Ga., on Jan. 7, 2026. (Sarah Peacock for AJC)
The graying halls of Congress don’t usually evoke images of youthful ambition, but a record number of lawmakers are calling it quits in 2026.
And in Georgia, their replacements may look very different.
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Georgia State Rep. Houston Gaines, R-Athens, is seen in the House of Representatives in Atlanta on Thursday, Feb. 2, 2023. (Arvin Temkar/AJC)
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A family name
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Rep. Jack Kingston, R-Savannah, served in the U.S. House for 11 terms, leaving to mount a failed U.S. Senate run in 2014. His son Jim is now seeking Jack’s old seat. (Curtis Compton/AJC)
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Pintail Inc. CEO/Owner Kevin Jackson Jr. shows U.S House candidate Jim Kingston around an automotive construction site in Savannah, Ga., on Jan. 7, 2026. (Sarah Peacock for AJC)
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From student government to the U.S. House?
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Georgia Rep. Houston Gaines, R-Athens, spoke at a rally titled “Make Athens Safer” at City Hall, Tuesday evening, March 5, 2024. (Nell Carroll for the AJC)
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A new normal?
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State Sen. Colton Moore, R-Trenton, who plans to run for the congressional seat being vacated by U.S. Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, speaks to the news media at the Capitol in Atlanta on Wednesday, Dec. 17, 2025. (Arvin Temkar/AJC)
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Georgia
Georgia politicians react along party lines to Minneapolis ICE officer shooting, killing US citizen
Georgia
Stacey Abrams rules out 2026 bid for Georgia governor
Two-time Democratic nominee says she’ll focus on fight against ‘authoritarianism’ instead.
Former gubernatorial candidate Stacey Abrams speaks at the Georgia State University Convocation Center in Atlanta on Tuesday, July 30, 2024, for a Kamala Harris campaign rally. (Arvin Temkar/AJC)
Stacey Abrams won’t be on the Georgia ballot in 2026.
The two-time Democratic nominee for governor definitively ruled out another run for Georgia’s top job this year, saying Thursday she’ll instead continue her work fighting what she sees as the nation’s lurch toward authoritarianism under President Donald Trump.
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Georgia Gubernatorial Democratic candidate Stacey Abrams and Republican candidate Brian Kemp greet each other before a live taping of the 2018 Gubernatorial debate for the Atlanta Press Club at the Georgia Public Broadcasting studio in Atlanta, Tuesday, Oct. 23, 2018. (Alyssa Pointer/AJC)
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A broader battle
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Rev. Martha Simmons wears an “election protection” badge during election day on Tuesday, Nov. 3, 2020, as a part of the New Georgia Project’s Faith Initiative. (Christina Matacotta for the AJC)
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Democratic candidates for governor include (top row, left to right): Keisha Lance Bottoms, Geoff Duncan, Jason Esteves. Bottom row: Derrick Jackson, Ruwa Romman and Michael Thurmond. (AJC file photos)
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