Connect with us

Business

U.S. economic growth remains impressive. It's the envy of the world, except at home

Published

on

U.S. economic growth remains impressive. It's the envy of the world, except at home

The last and most consequential report on the nation’s economic health before next week’s election provided more evidence of America’s resilient growth. Whether it will make a difference to voters is an open question.

The Commerce Department said Wednesday that U.S. gross domestic product, the broadest measure of economic output, expanded at a robust annual rate of 2.8% in the third quarter. A country’s GDP is a tally of the value of all goods and services produced in the nation.

The growth was a slight deceleration from the 3% annualized increase in the second quarter, but U.S. economic activity continued to far outpace almost every other developed nation. “The outlook is for more of the same with growth the envy of the world,” said Chris Rupkey, chief economist at Fwdbonds, a economic and markets research firm in New York.

The latest GDP increase was again powered by durable consumer spending as U.S. households have benefited from a solid job market, declining inflation and booming stock market.

“It’s impressive, phenomenal,” said Jeffrey Korzenik, chief economist at Fifth Third Bank, referring to the American economy’s exceptional run of strong output and full employment.

Advertisement

The Labor Department is set on Friday to release job creation and unemployment numbers for October, but analysts are discounting the report as the data are expected to be badly distorted by the temporary effects of two hurricanes and a strike by Boeing workers. In September, the American economy added 254,000 new jobs and unemployment ticked down to a historically low 4.1%.

With the third-quarter results, U.S. GDP is now projected to increase by nearly 3% for the full year, after posting similarly strong results in 2023 and the second half of 2022 . That compares with projected growth this year of about 1% or less for other leading advanced economies, including Germany, Japan, the United Kingdom and Canada.

U.S. GDP reached about $82,000 last year on a per-person basis — almost double the average of rich nations and more than six times that of China, the second largest economy after the U.S., and Russia, No. 11 in total output, according to World Bank data.

“The U.S. is still the standard among developed markets,” said Stephen Juneau, a senior U.S. economist at Bank of America.

Juneau sees some of the same underlying strengths in the latest report continuing to keep the economy on a steady if somewhat slower growth trajectory in the coming quarters.

Advertisement

The banking sector has been solid, as have corporate profits. Productivity has picked up in recent quarters. And an influx of immigrants, legal and undocumented, has boosted the labor supply, helping employers to keep growing and hold down wage inflation. “That’s been an exceptionalism of the U.S. economy — waves of immigration,” said Juneau.

They’ve also helped boost household spending, which accounts for about two-thirds of U.S. economic output. Consumer spending jumped 3.7% in the third quarter, as people bought more cars and spent money on healthcare services and to travel and eat out. Although lower-income and younger people are straining more to keep up with expenses and make debt payments, households on the whole are managing well.

Most people entered the sharp but brief pandemic recession in 2020 in good financial shape. And since then, their finances and spending have been supported by stable jobs — layoffs have remained unusually low — large government support, including stimulus checks, and appreciating assets. Most homeowners had locked in low mortgage rates before the Federal Reserve began jacking up interest rates in March 2022 to curb inflation.

Although job and wage gains are expected to moderate, the Fed has begun cutting interest rates now that inflation is closing in on its 2% target. That should help businesses and consumers, and give a lift to the housing market. In the third quarter, residential investment continued to be a drag on GDP, but businesses spent more for equipment especially to boost their information and transportation capabilities. That bodes well for future growth and productivity, which also has picked up in recent quarters.

U.S. imported more goods in the last quarter than it exported, which is a minus for GDP. But in places like Southern California, home to the largest warehousing and logistics operations in the U.S., that’s translated to more activity in the storage and movement of goods. The Port of Los Angeles, the busiest container complex in the nation, said it handled a record 954,706 containers in September, although some of the 27% increase reflected advanced purchases and diversions due to labor tensions at Eastern seaports.

Advertisement

“Right now the U.S. consumer is buying everything that isn’t nailed down,” said Rupkey. “The economy now is stronger than it was before the pandemic and trying to convince people otherwise is just completely foolhardy. The economy by almost every measure is better than it was four years ago.”

Yet while the U.S. economy may be the envy of the world, it isn’t so much at home. Polls have consistently shown Americans are mired in a sour, griping mood when it comes to the economy, which may prove to be a significant factor in the election.

Many analysts attribute the disconnect to two key elements: One is bad memories of high inflation especially in 2022, which means that prices for groceries and other goods, while now growing far more modestly, remain on the whole about 20% higher than before the pandemic. The second is that people’s feelings about the economy reflect their political leanings: Many Republicans, disregarding their own strong personal finances, have a jaundiced view of the economy under Democratic President Biden.

Korzenik, the Fifth Third Bank economist, suggests a third factor might be at play: He says there’s been a general worsening or shrinking of services for consumers, whether it’s a stay at a hotel where many now don’t do housekeeping unless requested, or a lack of experienced staff to help you at retail stores.

“I’m getting less for my money,” he said, calling it an overall “degradation of service quality.”

Advertisement

The American economy also has weak spots. Manufacturing activity remains soft. Strong growth in stocks and houses has come hand in hand with increased wealth inequality. And heavy federal spending in response to the pandemic added to the deficit and bloated public debts, which will crowd out investments and increase the government’s interest costs.

Of more immediate concern, there is a lot of uncertainty over the election outcome, especially because of Trump’s threats to ramp up tariffs and deport millions of undocumented immigrants, which would affect the labor market. For now, though, economists remain bullish about the outlook.

“The U.S. economy is firing on all cylinders at the current time and save a large external shock or domestic policy error, the U.S. economy is poised to close out the year on a strong economic note,” said Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at the tax and consulting firm RSM US.

Advertisement

Business

Startup Varda Space Industries snags former Mattel plant in El Segundo

Published

on

Startup Varda Space Industries snags former Mattel plant in El Segundo

In an expansion of its business of processing pharmaceuticals in Earth’s orbit, Varda Space Industries is renting a large El Segundo plant where toy manufacturer Mattel used to design Hot Wheels and Barbie dolls.

The plant in El Segundo’s aerospace corridor will be an extension of Varda Space Industries’ headquarters in a much smaller building on nearby Aviation Boulevard.

Varda will occupy a 205,443-square-foot industrial and office campus at 2031 E. Mariposa Ave., which will give it additional capacity to manufacture spacecraft at scale, the company said.

Originally built in the 1940s as an aircraft facility, the complex has a history as part of aerospace and defense industries that have long shaped the South Bay and is near a host of major defense and space contractors. It is also close to Los Angeles Air Force Base, headquarters to the Space Systems Command.

Workers test AstroForge’s Odin asteroid probe, which was lost in space after launch this year.

Advertisement

(Varda Space Industries)

Varda is one of a new generation of aerospace startups that have flourished in Southern California and the South Bay over the last several years, particularly in El Segundo, often with ties to SpaceX.

Elon Musk’s company, founded in 2002 in El Segundo, has revolutionized the industry with reusable rockets that have radically lowered the cost of lifting payloads into space. Though it has moved its headquarters to Texas, SpaceX retains large-scale operations in Hawthorne.

Varda co-founder and Chief Executive Will Bruey is a former SpaceX avionics engineer, and the company’s spacecraft are launched on SpaceX’s workhorse Falcon 9 rockets from Vandenberg Space Force Base in Santa Barbara County.

Advertisement

Varda makes automated labs that look like cylindrical desktop speakers, which it sends into orbit in capsules and satellite platforms it also builds. There, in microgravity, the miniature labs grow molecular crystals that are purer than those produced in Earth’s gravity for use in pharmaceuticals.

It has contracts with drug companies and also the military, which tests technology at hypersonic speeds as the capsules return to Earth.

Its fifth capsule was launched in November and returned to Earth in late January; its next mission is set in the coming weeks. Varda has more than 10 missions scheduled on Falcon 9s through 2028.

For the last several decades, the Mariposa Avenue property served as the research and development center for Mattel Toys. El Segundo has also long been a center for the toy industry as companies like to set up shop in the shadow of Mattel.

The Mattel facility “has always been an exceptional property with a legacy tied to aerospace innovation, and leasing to Varda Space Industries feels like a natural continuation of that story,” said Michael Woods, a partner at GPI Cos., which owns the property.

Advertisement

“We are proud to support a company that is genuinely pushing the boundaries of what’s possible, and are excited to watch Varda grow and thrive here in El Segundo,” Woods said.

As one of the country’s most active hubs of aerospace and defense innovation, El Segundo has seen its industrial property vacancy fall to 3.4% on demand from space companies, government contractors and technology startups, real estate brokerage CBRE said.

Successful startups often have to leave the neighborhood when they want to expand, real estate broker Bob Haley of CBRE said. The 9-acre Mattel facility was big enough to keep Varda in the city.

Last year, Varda subleased about 55,000 square feet of lab space from alternative protein company Beyond Meat at 888 Douglas St. in El Segundo, which it started moving into in June.

Varda will get the keys to its new building in December and spend four to eight months building production and assembly facilities as it ramps up operations. By the end of next year, it expects to have constructed 10 more spacecraft.

Advertisement

In the future, Varda could consolidate offices there, given its size. Currently, though, the plan is to retain all properties, creating a campus of three buildings within a mile of one another that are served by the company’s transportation services, Chief Operating Officer Jonathan Barr said.

“We already have Varda-branded shuttles running up and down Aviation Boulevard,” he said.

Continue Reading

Business

How Iran War Is Threatening Global Oil and Gas Supplies

Published

on

How Iran War Is Threatening Global Oil and Gas Supplies

Ships near the Strait of Hormuz before and after attacks began

Advertisement

Note: Times shown are in Iran Standard Time. Some ships in the region transmit false positions and others sometimes stop broadcasting their locations, and may not be reflected in the animation. Ships with sparse location data are shown in a lighter shade. Source: Kpler and Spire.

Every day, around 80 oil and gas tankers typically pass through the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway off Iran’s southern coast that carries a fifth of the world’s oil and a significant amount of natural gas.

Advertisement

On Monday, just two oil and gas tankers appear to have crossed the strait, according to a New York Times analysis of shipping activity from Kpler, an industry data firm. Since then, one tanker passed through.

“It’s a de facto closure,” said Dan Pickering, chief investment officer of Pickering Energy Partners, a Houston financial services firm. “You’ve got a significant number of vessels on either side of the strait but no one is willing to go through.”

Advertisement

Tankers have been staying away from Hormuz since the U.S.-Israeli attacks on Iran that began on Saturday. A prolonged conflict could ripple broadly across the global economy, threatening the energy supplies of countries halfway around the world and stoking inflation.

International oil prices have climbed 12 percent since the fighting began, trading Tuesday around $81 a barrel, and natural gas prices have surged in Europe and in Asia.

A senior Iranian military official threatened on Monday to “set on fire” any ships traveling through the Strait of Hormuz. Vessels in the region have already come under attack. Several oil and gas facilities have also been struck or affected by nearby shelling, though the damage did not initially appear to be catastrophic.

Advertisement

Where ships and energy facilities have been damaged

Advertisement

Note: Damage as of 2 p.m. Eastern time Tuesday. Source: Kpler, Kuwait National Petroleum Company, Saudi Arabian Ministry of Energy, Planet Labs, QatarEnergy, United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations and Vanguard Tech.

Advertisement

A fire broke out Tuesday at a major energy hub in Fujairah, United Arab Emirates, from the falling debris of a downed drone, the authorities said. On Monday, Qatar halted production of liquefied natural gas, or fuel that has been cooled so that it can be transported on ships, after attacks on its facilities.

Advertisement

Facilities at Ras Tanura oil refinery in Saudi Arabia were on fire on Monday after two Iranian drones were intercepted, according to Saudi Arabia’s Ministry of Energy, causing fragments to fall. Vantor

The sharp reduction in tanker traffic is reducing the supply of oil and gas to world markets, pushing up prices for both commodities. And the longer that ships stay away from the Strait of Hormuz, the less oil and gas get out to the world, which could raise prices even more.

Shipping companies have paused their tankers to protect their crew and cargo, and because insurance companies are charging significantly more to cover vessels in the conflict area.

Advertisement

On Tuesday, President Trump said that “if necessary,” the U.S. Navy would begin escorting tankers through the strait. He also said a U.S. government agency would begin offering “political risk insurance” to shipping lines in the area.

In addition to tankers, other large vessels regularly go through the strait, including car carriers and container ships. In normal conditions, nearly 160 make the trip each day.

Advertisement

Some ships in the region turn off the devices that broadcast their positions, while others transmit false locations — making it hard to give a full picture of the traffic in the strait.

The Shiva is a small oil tanker that has repeatedly faked its location, according to TankerTrackers.com, which tracks global oil shipments. It is suspected of carrying sanctioned Iranian oil, according to Kpler. The Shiva was one of the two tankers that crossed the strait on Monday.

The oil and gas that typically move through the strait come from big producing countries like Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Iran and United Arab Emirates, and are exported around the world.

Advertisement

Where tankers moving through the Strait have traveled

Advertisement

Note: Tanker paths are since Jan. 1 and include all tankers and gas carriers. Source: Kpler and Spire.

In 2024, more than 80 percent of the oil and gas transported through the Strait of Hormuz went to Asia. China, India, Japan and South Korea were the top importers, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

Advertisement

Countries have energy stockpiles that could last them into the coming months, but a continued shutdown of the strait could damage their economies.

Several big disruptions have roiled supply chains in recent years, but the tanker standstill in the Strait of Hormuz could have an outsize impact.

Advertisement
Continue Reading

Business

Paramount credit downgraded to ‘junk’ status over debt worries

Published

on

Paramount credit downgraded to ‘junk’ status over debt worries

Paramount Skydance’s jubilation over its come-from-behind victory to claim Warner Bros. Discovery has entered a new phase:

Call it the deal-debt hangover.

Two major ratings agencies have raised concerns about Paramount’s credit because of the enormous debt the David Ellison-led company will have to shoulder — at least $79 billion — once it absorbs the larger Warner Bros. Discovery, bringing CNN, HBO, TBS and Cartoon Network into the Paramount fold.

Fitch Ratings said Monday that it placed Paramount on its “negative” ratings watch, and downgraded its credit to BB+ from BBB-, which puts the company’s credit into “junk” territory. Fitch said it took action due to “uncertainty” surrounding Paramount’s $110-billion deal for Warner Bros. Discovery, which the boards of both companies approved on Friday.

S&P Global Ratings took similar action.

Advertisement

To finance the Warner takeover, Ellison’s billionaire father, Larry Ellison, has agreed to guarantee the $45.7 billion in equity needed. Bank of America, Citibank and Apollo Global have agreed to provide Paramount with more than $54 billion in debt financing.

“Potential credit risks include the prospective debt-funded structure, Fitch’s expectation of materially elevated leverage and limited visibility on post-transaction financial policy and capital structure,” Fitch said.

Late last week, Paramount sent $2.8 billion to Netflix as a “termination fee” to officially end the streaming giant’s pursuit of Warner Bros. That payment paved the way for Warner and Paramount’s board to enter into the new merger agreement.

Paramount hopes the merger will be wrapped up by the end of September. It needs the approval of Warner Bros. Discovery shareholders and regulators, including the European Union.

Paramount executives acknowledged this week the new company would emerge with $79 billion in debt — a considerably higher total than what Warner Bros. Discovery had following its spinoff from AT&T. That 2022 transaction left Warner Bros. Discovery with nearly $55 billion of debt, a burden that led to endless waves of cost-cutting, including thousands of layoffs and dozens of canceled projects.

Advertisement

Warner still has $33.5 billion in debt, a lingering legacy that will be passed on to Paramount.

Paramount plans to restructure about $15 billion in Warner Bros. Discovery’s existing debt.

Paramount CEO David Ellison at a 2024 movie premiere for a Netflix show.

(Evan Agostini / Invision / AP)

Advertisement

Paramount told Wall Street it would find more than $6 billion in cost cuts or “synergies” within three years — a number that has weighed heavily on entertainment industry workers, particularly in Los Angeles.

Hollywood already is reeling from previous mergers in addition to a sharp pullback in film and television production locally as filmmakers chase tax credits offered overseas and in other states, including New York and New Jersey.

Some entertainment executives, including Netflix Co-Chief Executive Ted Sarandos, have speculated that Paramount will need to find more than $10 billion in cost cuts to make the math work. More recently, Sarandos went higher, telling Bloomberg News that Paramount may need $16 billion in cuts.

Cognizant of widespread fears about additional layoffs, Paramount Chief Operating Officer Andrew Gordon took steps this week to try to tamp down such concerns.

Gordon is a former Goldman Sachs banker and a former executive with RedBird Capital Partners, an investor in Paramount and the proposed Warner Bros. deal. He joined Paramount last August as part of the Ellison takeover.

Advertisement

During a conference call Monday with analysts, Gordon said Paramount would look beyond the workforce for cuts because the company wants to maintain its film and TV production levels.

Paramount plans to look for cost savings by consolidating the “technology stacks and cloud providers” for its streaming services, including Paramount+ and HBO Max, Gordon said. The company also would search for reductions in corporate overhead, marketing expenses, procurement, business services and “optimizing the combined real estate footprint.”

It’s unclear whether Paramount would sell the historic Melrose Avenue lot or simply centralize the sprawling operations onto the Warner Bros. and Paramount lots in Burbank and Hollywood.

Workers are scattered throughout the region.

HBO, owned by Warner Bros. Discovery, maintains its West Coast headquarters in Culver City; CBS television stations operate from CBS’ former lot off Radford Avenue in Studio City; and CBS Entertainment and Paramount cable channels executive teams are located in a high-rise off Gower Street and Sunset Boulevard, blocks from the Paramount movie studio lot.

Advertisement

“The combination of PSKY and WBD could create a materially stronger business than either individual entity,” Standard & Poor’s said in its note to investors. “However, this transaction presents unique challenges because it would involve the combination of three companies, with the smallest, Skydance, being the controlling entity.”

David Ellison’s production firm, Skydance Media, was the entity that bought Paramount, creating Paramount Skydance.

Ellison has not announced what the combined company will be called.

Paramount shares closed down more than 6% Tuesday to $12.45.

Warner Bros. Discovery fell 1% to $28.20. Netflix added less than 1% to close at $97.70.

Advertisement
Continue Reading

Trending