Arizona
Opinion | Kamala Harris is trailing Trump in Arizona, but all’s not lost yet
Arizona is a swing state. So why is former President Donald Trump handily beating Vice President Kamala Harris in recent polls of Arizona voters?
After decades as a perennial red state, consistently voting for Republicans, Arizona turned purple in 2018, electing Kyrsten Sinema as its first Democratic U.S. senator in 30 years. Then in 2020, the state elected Democrat Mark Kelly to the Senate and went for Joe Biden over Trump by just over 10,000 votes — the first time a majority of Arizonans voted for a Democrat for president since Bill Clinton in 1996 (Harry Truman was the last Democrat to win Arizona before Clinton, back in 1948). Most recently, in 2022, Democrats took the majority of statewide offices, including governor, secretary of state and attorney general.
After decades as a perennial red state, consistently voting for Republicans, Arizona turned purple in 2018.
But a New York Times/Philadelphia Inquirer/Siena College poll conducted this month showed the former president up by a full 6 percentage points (with a margin of error of 4 points). Is the state swinging back to deep red? Probably not, but it’s complicated.
Arizona’s Democratic Party is hemorrhaging voters, dropping from 1.38 million in 2020 to 1.19 million in 2024. Republicans dropped, too, from 1.5 million to 1.45 million in 2024, but the much larger drop in Democratic voters is glaring, especially in a state now led by Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs.
Arizona’s unaffiliated voters have always been a large voting bloc, but that group is growing. In Maricopa County — the most populous county in the state and the fourth-largest in the country — Democrats voters fell from 814,000 to 692,000 in 2024. Biden won Republican-heavy Maricopa County in 2020, but Republicans’ voter advantage is much larger today.
Arizona is also missing strong statewide leadership despite having a Democratic governor. Hobbs is missing in action when it comes to the presidential and Senate races. She has not publicly appeared with Harris or her running mate, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz — despite numerous Arizona visits. Other swing-state governors, like Josh Shapiro in Pennsylvania, Gretchen Whitmer in Michigan and Roy Cooper in North Carolina, are pulling out all the stops for the Democratic ticket, but Hobbs and her team are fumbling what should be a tactical advantage for Harris in Arizona.
Arizona has the fourth-largest Hispanic population in the country, making up one-third of the state’s population. Polls show Harris receiving much less support from this vital voting bloc than Biden did four years ago.
Border security and illegal immigration are top issues nationwide, but Arizona is the only swing state where they are truly front and center. The recent one-hour Senate debate between Ruben Gallego and Kari Lake included no less than 30 minutes on immigration and border security issues.
Border security and illegal immigration are top issues nationwide, but Arizona is the only swing state where they are truly front and center.
Arizona also has an initiative on the ballot this year that purports to give law enforcement expanded powers to arrest immigrants who entered the country illegally. The latest polls show that ballot initiative favored by about 60% of Arizonans. The Biden/Harris administration is seen by most Arizonans, including Democratic politicians, as failing Arizona border towns and counties that are often overwhelmed with asylum-seekers and those who crossed the border illegally. These issues are personal to many Arizonans.
Arizona has a strong MAGA contingent, including some of the most extreme members of Congress in Reps. Andy Biggs, Paul Gosar and Eli Crane. It is the home of the money-raising MAGA activist group Turning Point USA. And yet, despite this loud minority contingent, every Trump-endorsed Republican candidate for statewide office lost in 2022, while Republicans who did not go all in on Trump won their races for treasurer, superintendent of public instruction and Corporation Commission. Lake lost the governor’s race in 2020 (although she still calls herself Arizona’s rightful governor and has pending election lawsuits to this day) and is greatly underperforming Trump in her Senate race.
That’s why all hope is not lost for Harris’ winning Arizona in 2024 — the state is truly purple. But she must overcome these significant headwinds if she wants to be only the fourth Democrat to win Arizona’s presidential vote in the last 76 years.
Last night was the seventh consecutive game where the Diamondbacks were held to six hits or fewer. That ties a franchise record, last done in April 2022, and previously in August 2011. The team’s .477 OPS over that time is actually lower than either streak, though due to the efforts of the pitching staff, Arizona are actually 3-4 during the current run. They went 2-5 in 2022, and 1-6 in 2011. There hasn’t been a longer streak in the majors since the Angels went nine in April last year. In the National League, the Pirates went eight in June 2023. And in case you are wondering, the last team to reach a double-digit streak of games with 6 or fewer hits each time? The 1968 Astros reached 11, the year before the mound was lowered.
Let’s hope the D-backs render that moot and the offense comes to life a bit. The three runs added in garbage time last night, because one of the Rangers’ relievers couldn’t find the strike-zone, certainly padded Arizona’s resume. But they were more because of walks than hits. I’ve no doubt the team will hit better. They have batted .152 over the past week. It’s the second lowest in franchise history for a seven-game span. The only worse was April 7-15, 2022 when Arizona hit a remarkable .135, going 28-for-208 in that span. They actually scored three more runs than the current streak, mostly because they had twice as many home-runs (6-3).
Superintendent Tom Horne speaks at 2026 State of Education address
Arizona Superintendent Tom Horne spoke about controversial topics like DEI and ESAs at the State of Education address to the Legislature on Jan. 20, 2026.
Provided by Arizona Legislature
Democrats Brett Newby and Teresa Leyba Ruiz are set to make the argument to voters that they’re the best candidates to serve as Arizona’s top education official for the next four years.
The Arizona Republic will be streaming the Democratic debate for the Superintendent of Public Instruction race in partnership with the Arizona Media Association. The debate starts at 6 p.m. on May 13.
The office is currently held by Tom Horne, who will on May 14 face off in an Arizona Media Association debate against fellow Republican candidate Kimberly Yee, who currently serves as state treasurer.
Newby has worked as a behavioral analyst and professor, according to his campaign. He received a master’s degree in special education. His campaign has hinged on issues like downsizing the state’s controversial Empowerment Scholarship Program, retaining teachers and hiring more school counselors.
Ruiz attended Roosevelt Elementary School District and Phoenix Union High School District as a child before earning her Ph.D. from Arizona State University. She worked as a teacher at the middle and high school level before becoming president of Glendale Community College.
Like Newby, her campaign has also focused on the ESA program. She has also focused on advocating for more funding for public schools and supporting both rural and urban school districts. Ruiz has also spoken publicly about the teacher retention crisis as part of her campaign.
The last trip through the rotation for the Diamondbacks has been really good:
By that 5-game rolling average game score, it’s the best we’ve seen since a run around the All Star Break in 2022:
If we restrict to 5-game stretches with 5 different starters, it’s the best since September 2019:
So yeah, it’s been a while since we’ve had it this good. But this is still a far cry from the best in Diamondbacks history — the current stretch is only tied for 58th all-time. Here’s the best ever:
The good news is that there’s still quite a lot of room for Zac Gallen to improve on his last start, which had a Game Score of only 47. Doing so would give us an even better 5-game average. A score of better than 60 would surpass the 2022 streak; 69 or better would surpass 2018. Although it would take a career-best-tying 89 (reached against the Cubs on September 8, 2023) for him to pull the overall average into a tie for the franchise record. But any improvement on his last start would bring the rolling average up in the franchise rankings.
All records queried here are courtesy of Retrosheet.
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