The first serious storm system of meteorological spring for Central Texas will arrive this weekend, bringing the potential for strong thunderstorms, large hail, gusty winds, heavy rainfall and a noticeable drop in temperatures.

Looking at the overall setup, Texas is sandwiched between two storm systems that originally developed from the same large trough of low atmospheric pressure in the jet stream. On Friday, that system split with one piece moving northeast before becoming an upper-level system of low pressure over the Great Lakes, while the other retrograded southwest toward Baja California.

Our weather on Saturday will be influenced by the upper-level low pressure over the Great Lakes, which is dragging a strong cold front southward into Texas. Across Central Texas, the combination of a dry line separating dry and humid air masses and the approaching cold front will provide enough atmospheric lift to trigger scattered thunderstorms during the afternoon.

Ahead of the front, a deep pool of moisture-rich air from the Gulf of Mexico will continue to build, increasing atmospheric instability and helping storms develop and intensify. This setup creates the potential for severe afternoon thunderstorms capable of producing large hail — more than 1.5 to 2 inches in diameter, or around golf-ball size — along with strong wind gusts.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS: Know these cloud formations to prepare for the Texas severe weather that’s headed our way 

The National Weather Service’s Storm Prediction Center has placed all of Central Texas under a level 2 out of 5 risk for scattered but brief severe thunderstorms on Saturday.

The severe weather threat will decrease with the passage of the cold front, but the cut-off system of low pressure near Baja California will begin to play a larger role in our weather. Atmospheric disturbances rotating around this system will move into Texas beginning Saturday night. It will continue to harass Texas with multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms into early next week. 

Saturday morning will start off very muggy across Central Texas, with overcast skies and light southerly winds. Dew point temperatures will range from the mid-60s to near 70 degrees, indicating a very moist atmosphere. Meanwhile, much drier air will sit just west of the Hill Country behind the dry line, where significantly lower dew points will be observed.

What are dew point temperatures? It is a reliable indicator of how much moisture is in the air and how comfortable it feels outside. When dew points climb above 65 degrees, conditions begin to feel humid in Central Texas, and values approaching 70 degrees can feel downright oppressive. While dew point is not a direct measurement of total atmospheric moisture, it is a strong indicator of how much moisture is present in the air.

By noon, scattered showers and thunderstorms will begin developing in the Hill Country along the frontal boundary, where atmospheric instability will be greatest. In Austin, a few spotty showers are possible, but the heavier storms are expected to arrive later. 

Winds will remain light out of the southeast along and east of Interstate 35, and temperatures will reach their warmest point of the day around lunchtime, ranging from the upper 60s to the upper 70s.

The cold front will arrive in the Austin area during the early afternoon before pushing toward Southeast Texas during the late afternoon and early evening. The front will provide the necessary lift in the atmosphere to produce more widespread thunderstorms. This will be the period when the threat of severe weather is highest, with large hail, damaging winds and minor flooding as the main concerns throughout the afternoon.

Keep in mind that if you have outdoor plans, you should be prepared to seek shelter as soon as you see lightning or hear thunder.

Temperatures will climb above March’s average high of 70 degrees ahead of the front, but once the front moves through, they will drop quickly. Readings in the mid to upper 70s around 2 p.m. will fall into the upper 50s and low 60s by 7 p.m.

Winds will also become gusty behind the frontal boundary, with some locations seeing gusts of 25 to 30 mph. These stronger winds are a sign of a tightening pressure gradient, which occurs as air pressure changes across the region.

The front will lose momentum on Saturday night and stall across South Texas. Rain chances will continue overnight and into Sunday as several atmospheric disturbances rotate toward us from a closed system of low pressure system out to the west.

Temperatures will run cooler than normal on Sunday before warming back into the 70s and 80s next week.