Illinois
FPI Predicts Every Illinois Fighting Illini Football Game In 2024
The Illinois football season is 15 days away, as the team gears up for its 100th season at Memorial Stadium. The Illini are coming off a 5-7 record last year, with several close losses, including a bowl-eliminating defeat to in-state rival Northwestern in Week 12.
ESPN released its FPI projections for every Illinois football game in 2024. Given that college football is an unpredictable sport, the projections don’t exactly predict how the Illini will finish.
BetMGM sees Illinois’ over/under win total at 5.5 wins, which is on the fringe of a bowl berth. If Illinois were to qualify for a bowl game, it would be its first appearance since Jan. 2023.
FPI Prediction: Illinois has a 97.8% chance to win.
Illinois opens the season with a nonconference matchup against Eastern Illinois, its first of three straight home games to begin the season. Despite Eastern Illinois finishing 8-3, it never faced a ranked FBS or notable opponent, whereas Illinois played the best of the best in the Big Ten. Barring anything catastrophic, the ESPN FPI sees a near-guaranteed win for Illinois and to begin 1-0.
FPI Prediction: Illinois has a 30.2% to win.
Illinois will see a tougher matchup for its Week 2 rematch with the Kansas Jayhawks from 2023. This was Illinois’ first FBS loss a year ago and ESPN expects a similar story here. Kansas finished 9-4 after a 5-1 start, hanging on to beat Illinois 34-23. The FPI doesn’t give the Illini the greatest of margains, coming in at 30.2%. If ESPN’s projections hold true, Illinois will enter its homecoming game 1-1.
FPI Prediction: Illinois has a 79.1% chance to win
Another winnable game ends Illinois’s three-game homestand against Central Michigan. While Illinois has been prone to home upset losses (including a 2019 last-minute defeat to Eastern Michigan), ESPN gives Illinois nearly an 80% chance to win, putting Illinois’ record at 2-1 entering Big Ten competition.
FPI Prediction: ESPN does not have one for this game
Illinois and Nebraska meet for the fourth time in the last six years, but this time, the game is in Lincoln, Nebraska. Illinois lost to the Cornhuskers 20-7 last year, where the Illini struggled to move the ball and never led during the entire game. ESPN likely sees the game as a coin flip, given that Matt Rhule was on the doorstep of the best season in recent Cornhuskers history. It’s Illinois Big Ten opener and the first of back-to-back Big Ten road games.
FPI Prediction: Illinois has an 8.3% chance to win
Illinois lost to Penn State last year, as the Nittany Lions exacted revenge from an nine-overtime thriller two years prior. Penn State is one of the perennial favorites to contend for a College Football Playoff berth, making the Illini’s second Happy Valley trip under Bret Bielema a potentially taller order than its previous meeting.
FPI Prediction: Illinois has a 58% chance to win
Illinois attempts to reclaim the Cannon Trophy when it welcomes Purdue and Ryan Walters into Champaign for a mid-October tilt. It is Walters’ first trip to Champaign in two seasons, where he once served as the team’s defensive coordinator. The Illini will likely need a win here to stay in bowl contention, as it was trounced in West Lafayette 44-19 last year, Illinois’ first road conference game of the season. Illinois has been given a 58% chance to win, as Purdue is still in rebuild mode entering Walters’ second year.
FPI Prediction: Illinois has a 20.4% chance to win
The defending national champion Michigan Wolverines come to Champaign in an attempt to spoil Illinois’ Memorial Stadium Rededication celebration, honoring its 100-year history. By this point in the season, the Wolverines will likely be unbeaten or have one loss, needing to stay in the thick of the College Football Playoff discussion. Given the tall task, ESPN isn’t a fan of the Illini’s chances, chalking it up as a potential loss at a 20.4% win probability, similar to their encounters with the Wolverines in 2022 in Ann Arbor and 2019, which was also in Champaign.
FPI Prediction: Illinois has a 5.5% chance to win
The most challenging game on Illinois’ schedule comes in late-October when it travels cross country for the first time in the new 18-team Big Ten to Eugene, Oregon. The Ducks are another potential Big Ten powerrhouse who will likely be fighting for their Big Ten and CFP title possibilities by that point in the season. ESPN projects this game to be a near-miracle potential upset for Illinois, giving it a 5% chance to win based on the FPI Power Index.
FPI Prediction: Illinois has a 54% chance to win
The Illini get Minnesota on Dad’s Weekend for the first time in five years, as this is a team Illinois has gotten the better of in the last several years. Illinois won a thriller in Minneapolis in 2023 thanks to a late John Paddock touchdown pass near the end of regulation, putting a dent in the Golden Gophers’ Big Ten West title hopes. Despite high expectations nearly every year under P.J. Fleck, the Gophers seem to fizzle out once the calendar turns to November, which is arguably why ESPN likes Illinois to earn another home win.
FPI Prediction: Illinois has a 60.4% chance to win
Unlike its neighbors, Michigan State might actually be an easier matchup for Illinois, given that ESPN’s FPI heavily favors the Illini at 60.4%. The Spartans are under an entirely new regime in the aftermath of coach Mel Tucker’s firing and will likely be playing for pride and poise this late in the season. The Spartans did upset Illinois in 2022, effectively ending its near stranglehold on the Big Ten West with just a few games remaining, but both of these teams are in much different places. Not to mention, it’s Senior Day for Illinois, potentially adding extra motivation for the team.
FPI Prediction: Illinois has a 33% chance to win.
Simply put, Rutgers is a better team on paper, hence ESPN’s lower chances for Illinois at 33%. But, Bielema has been prone to pulling off road upsets before, including a last-second win at Maryland in mid-October a season ago.
FPI Prediction: Illinois has a 44.2% chance to win
The Illini are seeking their first win over the Wildcats in two seasons. The game is not a true road game for Illinois because the game will be taking place in a neutral site, the home of the Chicago Cubs, Wrigley Field. Both fanbases will likely appear in droves, as bowl implications could be at stake. Although Northwestern is projected to win, per ESPN, it’s close quarters, with the Illini coming in with a 44.2% chance of bringing home the Land of Lincoln Trophy again.
Illinois is seeking its second winning season under Bielema, as it finished 8-5 in 2022-2023, losing to Mississippi State in the ReliaQuest Bowl.
Zain Bando is a contributor to Illinois Fighting Illini On SI. He can be reached at zainbando99@gmail.com or follow him on X @zainbando99
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Combined state and federal taxes would take more than 50% of the top-end income for 22,000 Illinois small businesses.
Proposals in the Illinois General Assembly could slam massive tax hikes onto small businesses, the state’s primary job creator historically and in the recovery from the COVID-19 downturn.
One measure would punish 22,020 Illinois small businesses with a huge increase in their marginal state income tax rate and create a top tax rate of nearly 50.3% for them, once all state and federal income taxes are factored in.
S-corporations and partnerships, which “pass-through” their business income to their owners, who pay taxes as individuals, would see their top marginal state income tax rate jump from 4.95% to 7.95%, a 61% hike.
That would happen because the legislation, House Joint Resolution Constitutional Amendment 21, adds a 3% income tax on income above $1 million. It is scheduled for a hearing April 23 at which it could pass out of committee and go to a potential full House vote.
Research has shown that an increase in the top marginal tax rate is associated with a decrease in entrepreneurs’ hiring activity and lower wages for their employees.
Illinois has one of the highest unemployment rates in the nation and among the slowest wage growth. These are exacerbated by some of the highest state and local tax burdens in the nation, including the second-highest property taxes and eighth-highest sales taxes.
In 2017 Illinois residents endured the largest permanent income tax hike in state history, when lawmakers increased the rate by 32%, from 3.75% to 4.95%.
Illinois already pushes out more businesses than virtually any other state. The “millionaire’s tax” could make the situation even worse. Illinoisans should reject this call for higher taxes on the state’s vital small business community.
Contact your state representative to stop the small business tax hike here.
SYCAMORE, Ill. – A Sycamore mother said she is still waiting for justice more than two years after her teenage son was stabbed to death.
The case is back in court this week, where a judge will consider a key request that could change how the case moves forward.
What we know:
A mother said her son’s life was cut short during a confrontation that turned deadly.
Heather Gerken said her 17-year-old son, Kaleb McCall, was stabbed during an incident in September 2023. She said Kaleb agreed to meet another teen for what he believed would be a fist fight while sticking up for a friend.
According to Gerken, the other teen, who was 15 at the time, pulled a knife and stabbed Kaleb in the chest. Kaleb later died from his injuries.
Gerken said a jury later found that teen guilty of second-degree murder after the defense argued he acted in self-defense.
Dig deeper:
The case is not over.
Gerken says the defendant’s attorneys are now trying to move the case out of adult court and into juvenile court. That decision could impact how the teen is ultimately sentenced.
What they’re saying:
Gerken said the legal process has been long and frustrating.
She said the case has stretched on for more than two and a half years and that ongoing court proceedings have made it difficult for her to grieve her son.
“He was everybody’s big brother,” Gerken said. “He had the biggest smile and the sweetest personality. He enjoyed fishing and being outside, and he was the best gift giver. He always got me flowers for every little holiday. Just a very thoughtful boy.”
Gerken also said the possibility of the case moving to juvenile court is especially upsetting, as she continues to push for what she believes is justice for her son.
“I don’t want anybody else’s child to die the way that my son died,” Gerken said. “Caleb is my whole world. I gave birth to him at 17 and he changed my life completely. He made me a better person. He taught me what real love truly is…And I just miss him so much more every day. And just knowing that he died the way he did. It makes me sick.”
What’s next:
The case returns to court Thursday morning.
A judge is expected to determine whether the case remains in adult court or is moved to juvenile court, a decision that could shape what happens next in the case.
The Source: The information in this article was reported by FOX Chicago’s Lauren Scafidi.
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