Crypto
New Research Model Sheds Light on Cryptocurrency Market Drivers
The new study has delved into cryptocurrency prices, particularly bitcoin, revealing that markets are significantly influenced by both conventional financial factors and crypto-specific factors.
The paper by Austin Adams from Uniswap Labs, Markus Ibert from the Copenhagen Business School Department of Finance, and Gordon Liao from Circle Internet Financial was published earlier this week.
✨New research ✨
We teamed up with @circle and the Copenhagen Business School to explore what drives crypto asset prices, examining the impact of:
+ Monetary policy
+ Broad market risk premium
+ Crypto-specific demandhttps://t.co/S0FqJGV7vb— Uniswap Labs 🦄 (@Uniswap) July 30, 2024
What Drives Crypto Markets?
The researchers used a “sign-restricted vector auto-regressive (VAR) model” enabling them to examine crypto price fluctuations that come from spillovers from traditional financial markets versus risks inherent to crypto assets.
The new model broke bitcoin returns down into various shocks, including monetary policy, conventional risk premium, adoption, and crypto risk premium shocks. It revealed that monetary policy shocks have a substantial impact on bitcoin prices, especially over longer time horizons.
For example, contractionary monetary policy when the Federal Reserve was raising interest rates accounted for over two-thirds of bitcoin’s sharp decline in 2022 when the asset retreated around 65%.
The crypto contagion caused by the collapse of the Terra/Luna ecosystem and FTX later in the year also contributed to that big bear market.
The research noted that while conventional shocks can have large lower-frequency impacts on crypto prices, “most day-to-day movements in bitcoin prices are left unexplained” by these disruptions.
It also found that when there is turmoil in the crypto market, people tend to move their money into stablecoins, exhibiting behavior similar to how investors might buy gold or government bonds during stock market turbulence.
When BlackRock announced plans for a Bitcoin ETF, the model detected both increased adoption of the asset class and a decrease in crypto-specific risk aversion. In simple terms, this news made people more interested in BTC and less worried about its risks, driving up the price.
Crypto Not Yet Integrated With TradFi
The researchers concluded that while crypto isn’t entirely separate from the broader financial ecosystem, it’s not completely integrated either.
Their findings highlight the importance of identifying drivers of crypto returns and understanding the asset class’s evolving relationship with traditional financial markets.
With a Federal Reserve rate cut expected in September, crypto markets should do well later this year due to increased liquidity and risk appetite. This also aligns with the four-year market cycle, which should see a bull market peak in late 2025 … if history rhymes.
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Crypto
SpaceX Lands Nasdaq-100 Spot Weeks After Record IPO
Key Takeaways
- SpaceX is joining the Nasdaq-100 and FTSE Russell’s U.S. equity indexes less than a month after its record-breaking IPO.
- Index inclusion may increase fund demand, trading volume, and visibility among institutional investors.
- Shares have experienced volatility since listing.
SpaceX Inclusion Highlights Growing Influence of Aerospace Innovation in Major Market Benchmark
Elon Musk’s Space Exploration Technologies Corporation (Nasdaq: SPCX), also known as SpaceX, will join the Nasdaq-100 Index before the market opens on July 7, 2026, Nasdaq announced on June 26. The addition places the aerospace company among the 100 largest non-financial companies listed on the Nasdaq Stock Market.
SpaceX’s inclusion follows its initial public offering on June 12, 2026, when the company debuted on the Nasdaq in what became the largest IPO in history. The aerospace and technology company priced its shares at $135, entering the market with an initial valuation of $1.77 trillion. Shares opened at $150 and closed their first trading day at $160.95, valuing SpaceX at roughly $2.1 trillion, a milestone that made Musk the world’s first trillionaire.
Nasdaq stated:
“Space Exploration Technologies Corporation (Nasdaq: SPCX) will become a component of the Nasdaq-100 Index prior to market open on Tuesday, July 7, 2026.”
The company entered public markets after years of private growth, fueled by advancements in reusable rocket technology, satellite deployment, and its Starlink broadband network.
Since its record IPO, SpaceX shares have experienced notable volatility. SPCX climbed to an intraday high above $225 during its first week of trading before retreating. The stock later closed at $153.23 on June 26, remaining above its IPO price but trading near its opening level as early enthusiasm gave way to more measured trading.
Nasdaq-100 Tracks Major Non-Financial Companies Listed on the Exchange
The Nasdaq-100 measures the performance of 100 of the largest non-financial companies listed on Nasdaq and is widely followed by investors.
“The Nasdaq-100 Index — which measures the performance of 100 of the largest Nasdaq-listed non-financial companies — is tracked by more than 200 investment products with over $800 billion in assets under management globally,” the company noted, adding:
“Nasdaq Global Indexes publishes and maintains more than 10,000 indexes across asset classes and geographies.”
Inclusion in the Nasdaq-100 can reshape trading activity, as index-tracking funds rebalance their portfolios to incorporate the new constituent. This process typically boosts trading volume and raises the company’s profile among institutional investors.
FTSE Russell is also adding SpaceX to its Russell U.S. equity indexes after Friday’s closing bell as part of its semi-annual reconstitution. The update requires passive funds tied to Russell benchmarks, including the iShares Russell 1000 ETF (IWB), to add SPCX shares as the new index lineup takes effect.
SpaceX’s rapid inclusion in major benchmarks reflects its large market value and strong trading activity, both key factors for index eligibility. Being added to widely followed indexes can also lead to increased demand for shares, as funds that track these benchmarks must buy stock in newly included companies.
Crypto
CLARITY Act Needs 60 Votes and 7 Democrats as GOP Races the August Recess Clock
Key Takeaways
Pressure Builds as the Legislative Window Narrows
The push was reported by Eleanor Terrett, host of “ Crypto in America,” who said GOP lawmakers are increasingly anxious to move the bill once senators return from their break. She tied the renewed sense of urgency to heightened political pressure following the fallout from a contentious housing bill, as well as a growing realization that time is running short. She further added:
“Pressure and time constraints could ultimately create the conditions needed to strike a deal.”
Lawmakers and analysts broadly agree that the Senate must act before August for the legislation to have a realistic shot this year. The CLARITY Act would establish a federal framework dividing oversight of digital assets between the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). It is a long-sought goal for an industry that has complained for years about regulatory uncertainty in the U.S. The House of Representatives passed its version of the measure in 2025.
From the outside looking in, the arithmetic seems to be a central hurdle as Republicans hold 53 Senate seats, which means the bill needs at least seven Democratic votes to overcome the 60-vote cloture threshold and reach a final floor vote. The Senate Banking Committee advanced the legislation in a 15-9 vote in May, placing it on the calendar but leaving the floor fight unresolved.
Senator Cynthia Lummis (R-WY) has set an end-of-July target and warned that missing the window could push enforceable digital-asset rules to 2030. Reporting indicates that the House is prepared to move quickly to reconcile the two versions if the Senate passes its bill before the recess, with the lower chamber scheduling back-to-back hearings in July touching on crypto policy.
Industry pressure has also intensified, with more than 200 organizations, including Coinbase and Ripple, urging Senate leaders to bring the bill to the floor. A separate coalition representing over 1,200 technology companies has pressed for swift passage as U.S. crypto rules face mounting global competition. Groups of former national security officials and crypto founders have added their names to the mix as well in recent weeks.
That said, not everyone is on board with these developments, and Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), ranking member of the Senate Banking Committee, recently argued that the bill in its current form could “blow up the economy.” That opposition is part of why supporters need to peel off a handful of Democrats to reach 60 votes.
What Comes Next
The next step is a Senate floor vote, where the bill’s bipartisan support will face its broadest test. Even if it clears that hurdle, the Senate text would still need to be reconciled with the House’s 2025 version before anything could reach the president’s desk.
As things stand, the August recess functions as a hard deadline in the minds of the bill’s backers. The post-recess stretch runs into an election-year calendar that supporters fear could stall momentum, which is why several lawmakers describe the coming weeks as the bill’s best and possibly final opening this Congress.
Crypto
Crypto Insiders Say Daily Senate Meetings Keep CLARITY Act Alive | PYMNTS.com
With time running out to strike a deal on cryptocurrency legislation, U.S. senators remain divided on several issues, Semafor reported Thursday (June 25).
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