Politics
See How Biden Lost Support in the Polls Before He Dropped Out
President Biden ended his re-election campaign on Sunday after a post-debate slump in national and swing-state polls. In less than four weeks, his position had deteriorated in three Rust Belt states crucial to his re-election, as former President Donald J. Trump’s once narrow polling leads grew wider.
Trump +5 Mich.
Trump +5 Pa. Trump +4 Wis.
Trump +3 U.S.
Note: Times polling averages for the Biden vs. Trump matchup are archived here.
The New York TimesTimes polling averages in three key states
Mr. Biden fell again in the polls after a gunman’s attempted assassination of Mr. Trump at a Pennsylvania rally on July 13. The president lost support in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, as well as other swing states where he had already been trailing by four to five points.
Trump +7 Nev.
Trump +7 Ga. Trump +7 Ariz.
Trump +6 N.C.
Trump +3 U.S.
Mr. Biden’s path to the presidency narrowed as his standing in the swing-state polls dropped, most likely a factor in his decision to drop out of the race. Multiple Democratic officials publicly shared their concerns about recent polling trends in urging him to step aside.
Polls and the Electoral College
Both Mr. Biden and Mr. Trump had states they could count on in November, but they needed to get to 270 electoral votes. Let’s zoom in on nine states where the vote was closest in 2020, or polling was close on July 21.
Biden trailed by 4 or 5 points in these states.
Note: Biden vs. Trump head-to-head averages shown.
By The New York Times
Might the polls have been wrong, or have underestimated support for Mr. Biden? It’s possible, but his deficit was nearing the edges of the biggest polling misses in recent elections. Assuming the polls did not change before Election Day, he would have needed the polling margins in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan to miss by at least five points in his favor.
The ranges in this chart represent the magnitude of each state’s biggest polling miss in recent elections, shown in relation to the final Biden vs. Trump polling averages.
Range of polling miss
Note: Biden vs. Trump head-to-head averages shown. Polling misses are based on averages published by The New York Times in 2012, 2016 and 2020, and on FiveThirtyEight’s 2022 midterm averages in each state’s Senate or governor’s race.
By The New York Times
What if the polls were wrong?
6 pts.
(2016)
3 pts.
(2012)
9 pts.
(2020)
5 pts.
(2022)
6 pts.
(2022)
6 pts.
(2016)
3 pts.
(2022)
2 pts.
(2016)
4 pts.
(2012)
The Times has published an update to its polling averages that shows Mr. Trump with a narrow national lead over Vice President Kamala Harris, who is now the most likely Democratic nominee. Most of the polls were conducted before she was a candidate, and there are currently few or no polls of the new matchup at the state level. It may take at least a week or two to gain a broader understanding of how Ms. Harris’s entry will affect the race.
Politics
McCarthy says Trump will use ‘everything he can’ to force Senate action on SAVE America Act
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As infighting over the SAVE America Act throws congressional Republicans into disarray, President Donald Trump’s bid to get the stalled election bill across the finish line gained one notable ally.
Former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., told Fox News Digital that he supports the election integrity measure and indicated that Trump should continue to use every available tool to pressure the Senate to pass it.
“He’s going to try everything he can to make sure he passes that through,” McCarthy said in a brief interview outside the U.S. Capitol.
The ex-speaker’s comments came after Trump abruptly called off a signing ceremony Wednesday for a bipartisan housing bill to pressure the Republican-controlled Senate to act on the SAVE America Act.
President Donald Trump boards Air Force One as he departs Reading Regional Airport in Reading, Pa., on June 23, 2026. (Evelyn Hockstein/Reuters)
IRATE REPUBLICANS ACCUSE TRUMP OF HANDING DEMOCRATS A WIN AFTER BLOWING UP HOUSING PACKAGE
The move surprised Republican lawmakers, some of whom were praising the bill’s passage at a press conference when Trump’s Truth Social post broke.
But Trump has repeatedly cast the election measure — requiring proof of citizenship to vote in federal elections and voter identification requirements — as his top legislative priority.
The legislation’s momentum, however, has slowed in the upper chamber, where Republican leadership insists the votes aren’t there amid widespread Democratic opposition. Senate Republicans have also been unwilling to eliminate the legislative filibuster, which requires a 60-vote threshold to pass the legislation.
Former Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy speaks during a ceremony honoring President Ronald Reagan on the 115th anniversary of his birthday at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library in Simi Valley, Calif., on Feb. 6, 2026. (Hans Gutknecht/MediaNews Group)
TRUMP CALLS MAIL IN VOTING CORRUPT AS SENATE BEGINS DEBATE ON SAVE ACT REQUIRING VOTER ID
Amid the SAVE standoff, a group of conservative lawmakers effectively shut down the House floor in an effort to force Senate action on the election bill.
But the Senate recessed Wednesday for two weeks over the July 4 holiday, leaving the measure in limbo until lawmakers return.
The conservative-led blockade sparked fierce backlash, with several members inside the GOP conference telling Fox News Digital the move risked torpedoing their own legislative agenda.
Meanwhile, the House has also yet to pass a version of the legislation incorporating several of the president’s priorities, including a mail-in voting crackdown and provisions banning men from competing in women’s sports and child sex change procedures.
Trump has not indicated whether he will sign the 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act, despite the likely existence of a veto-proof majority.
House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., told reporters Thursday that the housing bill had been transmitted to the White House for Trump’s signature following a meeting with the president.
Speaker of the House Mike Johnson, R-La., talks with reporters in the U.S. Capitol on June 10, 2026. (Tom Williams/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images)
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Trump now has 10 days to sign the package or veto it. If he does nothing, the legislation automatically becomes law at the end of the 10-day period.
Politics
Trump budget request omits funds for L.A. fire relief, prompting criticism from senators
WASHINGTON — California’s two Democratic senators on Thursday criticized the Trump administration after it requested $87.6 billion from Congress to address some of the nation’s most “urgent needs” but omitted funding for victims of last year’s Los Angeles wildfires.
“Donald Trump’s desire to punish Los Angeles and the state of California for not voting for him, means once again that thousands of Angelinos are left watching this administration fight for anything but them, their businesses, and their communities,” Sens. Alex Padilla and Adam Schiff said in a joint statement.
“These fires did not discriminate based on party or political preference. Neither should this administration,” they added.
The omission is the latest strain in a yearlong standoff between California leaders and the Trump administration over federal disaster aid, and it comes after Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass and Los Angeles County Supervisor Kathryn Barger met with President Trump at the Oval Office in April to request the funding.
At the meeting, Trump signaled his commitment to working with local officials to help with disaster recovery efforts. The officials asked for $16 billion that would be split between the city and county. The money would consist primarily of disbursements from the Federal Emergency Management Agency flagged for communities hit by the fires, part of a $33.9-billion wildfire relief funding request made by Gov. Gavin Newsom.
Two months later, those talks have yet to yield results sought by local leaders.
The budget request, submitted by the Office of Management and Budget on Wednesday, mostly seeks funding for the Pentagon to address costs related to the Iran war. It also includes $11.1 billion in economic assistance for American farmers, $1.4 billion to address the Ebola virus outbreak in Central Africa, $500 million to support “ongoing efforts to complete restorations and construction projects” across the nation’s capital and $1 billion to boost the pensions of workers at General Motors that were cut as a result of the automaker’s bankruptcy.
“I urge the Congress to take action on these important and urgent requests as soon as possible,” White House budget director Russell Vought wrote in a letter addressed to House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.).
Vought said the administration was open to discussing “additional relief for other urgent matters.” The White House did not immediately respond when asked why the budget request did not mention the Eaton and Palisades disaster relief funds.
State leaders, including Newsom, have repeatedly accused the Trump administration of stonewalling billions in wildfire aid. The governor visited Washington in December to meet with lawmakers, including three who serve on the Senate and House appropriations committees, to push for the funding.
The governor also attempted to meet with FEMA about the matter, but said his request was denied. Newsom, a political foe of Trump’s, would not say whether he had attempted to meet with Trump to talk about the recovery efforts.
Politics
Trump administration pledges $150M in aid, deploys Navy warships after deadly Venezuela earthquakes
Secretary Rubio details US aid to Venezuela after earthquakes
Secretary Rubio, in Manama, Bahrain, outlines the comprehensive U.S. government response to the devastating back-to-back earthquakes in Venezuela. He confirms immediate deployment of search and rescue teams, medical resources and humanitarian assistance, emphasizing the urgency to save lives. Rubio reiterates President Donald Trump’s commitment to supporting Venezuela and collaborating with international partners on recovery efforts and long-term stability.
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Following a catastrophic set of earthquakes that left at least 235 people dead in Venezuela, the Trump administration has activated a government-wide humanitarian response, pledging $150 million in aid and deploying U.S. Navy warships to assist in life-saving rescue operations.
The rapid mobilization Thursday comes after back-to-back magnitude 7.2 and 7.5 earthquakes rocked northern Venezuela roughly 120 miles west of Caracas Wednesday night.
The rare earthquake “doublet” injured more than 940 people and turned the state of La Guaira into a disaster zone, while forcing the closure of the damaged Simón Bolívar International Airport, according to Venezuela’s Health Ministry.
US RESCUE TEAMS TO DESCEND ON HARD-HIT CARIBBEAN AFTER CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE MELISSA’S IMPACT
Rescuers search for victims in a collapsed building following an earthquake in Caracas on June 24, 2026. (Manaure Quintero / AFP via Getty Images)
The U.S. Department of State announced on Thursday it is mobilizing $150 million in aid, which includes $50 million in new bilateral awards for relief partners on the ground — such as Samaritan’s Purse, Catholic Relief Services and World Vision — along with a $100 million contribution to a United Nations humanitarian pooled fund.
To spearhead efforts on the ground, the State Department has deployed a regional Disaster Assistance Response Team alongside two highly specialized urban search-and-rescue teams from fire departments in Fairfax County, Virginia, and Los Angeles County, California.
U.S. WARSHIPS TO PATROL INTERNATIONAL WATERS AROUND VENEZUELA AS TRUMP VOWS TO STOP CARTELS
Members of the County of Los Angeles Fire Department’s international urban search and rescue team (USA-2) prepare to leave for Venezuela, in Pacoima, Calif., Thursday. (Blake Fagan/AFP via Getty Images)
U.S. Southern Command (SOUTHCOM) said it is surging assigned U.S. military forces to the region, directing the USS Fort Lauderdale and the USS Billings to Venezuela to back the State Department-led operations.
The USS Fort Lauderdale will serve as a “floating command center” with a flight deck to support heavy-lift helicopters and a well deck to launch landing craft, according to SOUTHCOM.
Meanwhile, the agile USS Billings will provide critical support close to the shorelines to accelerate the disaster response missions.
U.S. SOUTHCOM said it has directed USS Fort Lauderdale (LPD 28) and USS Billings (LCS 15) to Venezuela to support State Department-led U.S. government relief operations in Venezuela. (@Southcom/X)
SOUTHCOM said it is also sending rotary-wing aircraft, which will provide critical life-saving airlift support, transporting U.S. government response personnel, search and rescue teams and partners during relief operations.
Amid the crisis, the State Department emphasized that the safety of U.S. citizens remains the administration’s highest priority.
“The Trump Administration has no higher priority than the safety and security of Americans. The Department of State is working tirelessly to provide consular assistance to U.S. citizens and their families in the affected areas,” officials wrote in a statement. “The United States remains steadfast in its commitment to helping Venezuela recover from this devastating disaster and will continue to explore additional ways to provide meaningful assistance during this critical time.”
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U.S. citizens in Venezuela are urged to enroll in the Smart Traveler Enrollment Program (STEP) and can contact the State Department 24/7 at 202-501-4444 for emergency assistance.
Family members in the U.S. seeking information on loved ones can call toll-free at 888-407-4747.
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