Business
As more Californians fall behind in making debt payments, one group stands out
Stubbornly high inflation and interest rates are taking an increasing toll in California as the state experiences rising unemployment and slowing wage gains. And those feeling it the hardest: the largest and perhaps most budget-minded generation of them all.
Millennials, those roughly 28 to 43 years old, are generally thought to be more averse to debt and better savers than earlier cohorts such as Gen X (44 to 59 years old) and baby boomers (60 to 78).
But new data from the California Policy Lab at UC Berkeley show that while consumer debts overall are growing and becoming more difficult to manage for all but the very oldest generation in America, millennials are having the most trouble making their loan payments on time.
In the first quarter, 7.6% of millennial borrowers were at least 30 days late in making monthly payments on their credit card, auto and other loans. That compares with 6% of Gen X, 5.5% of Gen Z (ages 18 to 27) and 3.3% of boomers who fell behind on their loans. The earlier Silent and Greatest generations had even lower delinquency rates.
Unlike for Gen X-ers and boomers, the overall loan delinquency rate among millennials — who make up about one-fourth of California’s population — has now climbed above pre-pandemic levels. And economists worry that financial pressures will only continue to mount, especially with an end to the student loan repayment pause. Among other things, millennials are known for carrying a lot of college loan debt.
“I see no reason to believe that delinquencies aren’t going to be tracking higher,” said Evan B. White, the California Policy Lab’s executive director.
Foreclosures and personal bankruptcies for all ages are still very low by historical standards, as is the percentage of after-tax income that households are spending on making debt payments, another important indicator of financial stress.
Even so, consumers in California and across the country have been taking on more debt in recent quarters, including credit card borrowing. And 30-day delinquencies have been creeping higher — an early warning sign of potential trouble ahead.
Thus far consumer spending, which accounts for most of the nation’s economic growth, has held up well. But many people are feeling the effects of what’s been an extended period of high inflation and interest rates. A pullback by consumers could have a significant effect on the broader economy.
In the Federal Reserve’s annual report on the economic well-being of Americans, also released this week, about two-thirds of adults surveyed said that changes in the prices they paid in 2023 compared with the prior year had made their financial situation worse. And one-fifth of them said inflation had made things much worse.
The Fed report found that 72% of adults were at least “doing OK” financially, similar to the 73% figure in 2022 but well below the recent high of 78% in 2021.
U.S. households continue to benefit from a strong labor market, including solid, if slightly smaller, gains in wages. The nation’s unemployment rate was 3.9% in April, the 27th straight month in which the jobless figure has been below 4% — the longest such stretch since the 1960s.
California’s employment situation, however, has not been as strong. The pace of job gains statewide has lagged behind the nation’s. And California’s unemployment rate of 5.3% last month was the highest in the country, reflecting weakness in key sectors such as entertainment, high tech, and business and professional services. The number of unemployed workers in the state has increased by 164,000 over the last 12 months, according to California’s Employment Development Department.
Meanwhile, wage growth has slowed more in California than for the nation overall — and it’s now running below the rate of inflation, meaning workers’ purchasing power is shrinking.
In the 12 months ending in April, the average hourly earnings for all private employees in California were up 1.4% from the prior year. That’s less than half the rate of both wage growth and inflation for the United States. In contrast, from 2016 to 2022, California employees saw wage gains averaging 3% to 6% per year.
Nationally, aside from student loans, delinquencies on all types of consumer debt have been steadily rising since the end of 2021, according to the New York Fed.
During the first two years of COVID-19, consumers paid down their debts significantly, thanks in part to stimulus checks and other government programs. But since then, credit card delinquencies, in particular, have risen above pre-pandemic levels, and an increasing share of borrowers are maxing out on their plastic, most of them younger adults.
Why millennials seem to be struggling more financially may seem puzzling at first. They’re the best-educated generation and the first to grow up in the digital age. But many millennials also had the misfortune of entering their formative adult lives amid the Great Recession that began in late 2007 and left a trail of job and financial hardships for some years. Saddled with student loans and other debt, they have been slower to move out of their parents’ homes, start families and build wealth compared with earlier generations.
More recently, with home mortgage rates and home prices having soared, many millennials are stuck in apartments and feeling the squeeze of higher rents and prices for certain services that they are likely to need given their stage in life, like day care.
In fact, the Fed’s economic well-being report found that while there was little change for most population groups between 2022 and last year, one notable exception was parents living with their children under age 18. Given that women are having children later, this group would include a disproportionate share of millennials.
“Those are years when you’re moving into higher expenses of buying homes, buying cars and even setting aside money for children’s college,” said Greg McBride, chief financial analyst at Bankrate.com, which has studied generational differences in handling debt. “When we’ve experienced the type of inflation we’ve had, that really puts the squeeze on tight budgets.”
The race to bring air travel to the sky is heating up as Santa Cruz-based Joby Aviation and Toyota launch a joint venture to commercially produce air taxis.
The companies said in a news release Tuesday that they will work together on productivity, quality and costs and move toward mass production of Joby’s electric vertical takeoff aircraft. Joby and Toyota were first linked when Toyota made a nearly $400-million investment in the company in 2020. It has since increased its backing of the company to $900 million.
“It’s really meaningful for us to take on this challenge together with Joby, a partner that shares the same vision,” Toyota Chair Akio Toyoda said. “We believe this strengthened relationship is an important step forward in realizing the future mobility society.”
Joby‘s all-electric vertical takeoff vehicles are designed to hold four passengers and a pilot and can travel at up to 200 mph. The vehicle uses six tilting propellers to achieve vertical takeoff before switching to forward flight.
In February, Joby announced a partnership with Uber to start service in the United Arab Emirates this year, bringing on-demand air taxi rides to the country. It plans to expand to the U.S. after the completion of its final stage of Federal Aviation Administration testing.
Prior to its full FAA certification, Joby is hoping to launch early flight operations later this year as part of a White House program that will bring flights to several states, including New York, Texas and Arizona. Flights in California will not begin until after obtaining FAA certification.
Joby has been in a fierce battle to be the first with taxis in the sky with its Northern California competitor Archer Aviation. The two companies are involved in overlapping lawsuits, with Joby alleging corporate espionage against Archer, and Archer filing a suit alleging dubious ties to China that sparked an investigation into Joby by the U.S. International Trade Commission.
“Toyota has been by Joby’s side for nearly a decade, providing invaluable guidance and support as we built the foundation for manufacturing our aircraft,” JoeBen Bevirt, Joby’s chief executive and founder, said in the news release. “Together, we share a vision of making aerial mobility an everyday reality, and we look forward to delivering on that promise together.”
Joby Aviation’s shares, which have fallen more than 30% this year, climbed 3% on Tuesday to $8.92.
Disneyland Resort in Anaheim will offer $59 tickets for select evening admission to either theme park as part of a new promotion.
The one-day, one-park evening ticket offer will allow attendees to enter Disney California Adventure at 5 p.m. or Disneyland at 7 p.m. Park reservations are still required, as has been the case since the COVID-19 pandemic.
The offer only applies for admission from July 12 through Aug. 5 on Sundays to Wednesdays.
Disneyland Resort is commemorating its 70th anniversary through Aug. 9, and has introduced new shows and additions to rides as part of the occasion.
Walt Disney Co.’s theme parks and experiences business are a crucial boost to its finances, making up about 56% of the company’s operating income last fiscal year.
During the Burbank-based company’s most recent earnings call in May, Disney executives said attendance at its U.S.-based parks was down 1% compared with the prior year, a shift they attributed to “continued softness” in international visitations. However, the company said at the time that it was starting to move past those issues.
Disney’s experiences division reported $9.5 billion in revenue in that fiscal second quarter, up 7% compared with the same period a year ago, something executives said was due to higher guest spending domestically and more capacity on its cruise line.
An aging downtown office complex will be converted into apartments as part of an ambitious plan by local real estate companies to create 4,000 affordable housing units in Los Angeles.
The first project will be a $200-million makeover of the L.A. World Trade Center, a sprawling white elephant of an office complex on Figueroa Street built in the 1970s that will be turned into 512 apartments in one of the largest affordable housing conversions to date downtown.
Future projects being planned in the central city for delivery over the next five years will include other office-to-apartment conversions and new housing built from the ground up.
The 10-story World Trade Center, right, at Figueroa and Fourth streets in downtown Los Angeles, was built in the mid-1970s.
(Myung J. Chun / Los Angeles Times)
Behind the building campaign unveiled Monday are two of the region’s largest real estate companies, Jamison and Kennedy Wilson. Jamison is the city’s most prolific converter of offices to market-rate apartments and currently has a major makeover of a downtown office skyscraper underway for tenants who can pay top rents.
Kennedy Wilson, a real estate investment company based in Beverly Hills, owns Vintage Housing, which builds and operates affordable housing using tax credits and other state and federal financing to help fund it.
Vintage Housing and Jamison’s new affordable housing division, Arden Residential, will take on the campaign to build the housing where qualified tenants will pay rents below market rates.
Rents in the World Trade Center — which will be renamed Sky Castle when it opens in early 2028 — are expected to start at $937 for a one-bedroom unit. Some two- and three-bedroom units would rent for $1,100 and $1,300 per month, respectively, developers said.
Sky Castle will have shared amenities found in more expensive modern apartments, the developers said, such as a fitness center, resident lounge and co-working space. It already has six tennis courts on the roof, which may be converted to pickleball courts, Jamison Chief Executive Garrett Lee said.
The goal is to build higher quality affordable housing by using efficient construction methods Jamison has learned through building more than 8,000 market-rate apartments in the past, Lee said. The makeover of the World Trade Center will mark Jamison’s 15th conversion of an office building to housing.
The plan to redevelop the L.A. World Trade Center, bottom left, is one of the largest affordable housing conversions to date downtown.
(Myung J. Chun / Los Angeles Times)
The 10-story World Trade Center was built in the mid-1970s to fanfare saying it would be home to international companies. In 1976, The Times described the center as a place to prepare for an overseas trip where visitors could get passports and visas, as well as exchange dollars for francs, marks, rubles and other currency. There was a language school and branches of U.S., Swiss and Japanese banks.
By the mid-1980s, the 400,000-square-foot office complex covering a city block at Figueroa and Fourth streets had lost its international flavor and was falling out of favor with corporate tenants who were moving into glossy new skyscrapers on Bunker Hill and in other locations.
The building has been cleared of remaining office tenants to allow work to begin in August, Lee said.
Kennedy Wilson is a nationwide operator of market-rate apartments that has also moved into building affordable housing in the last decade, said Nicholas Bridges, global head of capital markets at the company.
Building affordable, workforce housing “in almost all cases requires public subsidies,” Bridges said, and Kennedy Wilson has developed expertise in assembling “a cocktail of public financing sources” that includes low-income housing tax credits and tax-exempt bonds.
In the past, many housing developers have shied away from building affordable housing because assembling the subsidies needed to make construction profitable is challenging.
An artist’s rendering shows what the L.A. World Trade Center could look like after being redeveloped into affordable housing. The new complex is to be called Sky Castle.
(Ian Camarillo)
“It’s complicated,” Bridges said, “and not for the faint of heart.”
Eligible tenants must earn between 30% and 80% of the median income in the area where the housing is built.
Jamison and Kennedy Wilson will develop about 15 affordable housing projects between downtown and the 405 Freeway, Bridges said, many of them in aging office buildings such as the World Trade Center that are already owned by Jamison and are close to public transit.
Substantial potential for affordable housing lies in L.A.’s underused office buildings, he said.
“In this post-COVID world, the way people are utilizing office buildings, particularly older office buildings, has just fundamentally changed,” he said.
It makes sense for developers of conventional multifamily housing to move to building affordable housing, Lee said, because the government supports it through subsidies, zoning reform and the fast-tracking of construction permits. The city of Los Angeles also recently streamlined its adaptive reuse rules to make it easier to convert office buildings to housing.
“There are a lot of incentives pushing us in this direction,” Lee said.
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