Tennessee
Tennessee vs. Vanderbilt odds: Win probability, final score prediction for Volunteers, Commodores
Tennessee and Vanderbilt are set to meet on Saturday night in a key conference showdown, one that the Volunteers will need to win to protect their NCAA Tournament resume.
The Commodores haven’t been very good this year, sitting at just 5-13 overall and 0-5 in SEC play. Vanderbilt has lost five straight games, going back to the start of conference play.
Tennessee, meanwhile, has been quite good. The Volunteers have won 10 of their last 11 games, with the only loss coming on the road by two possessions. So they’ll be a heavy favorite today.
Odds for Tennessee vs. Vanderbilt
Coming into the game, Tennessee is a 14.5-point favorite over Vanderbilt, per FanDuel Sportsbook. The Volunteers are currently listed at -1400 for the moneyline as of Saturday morning, while the Commodores are sitting at +800.
The point total for the game is set at 141.5 points. Tennessee ranks No. 58 nationally in scoring at 79.7 points per game, while Vanderbilt ranks No. 316 nationally at 67.2 points per game. That combined total sits at 146.9 points, an interesting divergence from the over/under total. And despite Vanderbilt’s recent struggles, the Commodores have played some close games, staying within a possession of a ranked Memphis team and of Alabama. So Saturday’s contest offers at least some intrigue.
Final score predictions for Tennessee vs. Vanderbilt
BPI predicted winner: Tennessee
BPI predicted point differential: 18.7
CPI win probability (for Tennessee): 94.6%
BPI matchup quality: 64.6
ESPN’s BPI is a model designed to provide a statistical comparison between two teams and predict future success. It agrees with Vegas about what to expect from this game. Heading into the game, BPI is projecting a point differential of 18.7 points in Tennessee’s favor. It also gives the Volunteers a 94.6% chance to win the game over the Commodores on the road.
BPI also gives this game a matchup quality score of 64.6, which ranks well outside the top 25 in quality scores predicted for the day.
KenPom predicted final score: Tennessee 79, Vanderbilt 62
KenPom win probability (for Tennessee): 94%
KenPom is another predictive system for college basketball. It’s designed to show how strong a team is at a given time, without taking factors like injuries into account.
For Saturday’s game between Tennessee and Vanderbilt, KenPom agrees with BPI and Vegas’ consensus, projecting the Commodores to lose by seventeen points.
How to watch Tennessee vs. Vanderbilt
Time: 6 p.m. ET
Channel: SEC Network, FuboTV (streaming)
Location: Memorial Gymnasium – Nashville, Tenn.
The opening tip between the Volunteers and Commodores is scheduled for 6 p.m. ET and will air live on the SEC Network. It’s also going to be available to fans on streaming through FuboTV, which has an option for a free trial.
TRY FUBO FOR FREE: For a limited time, new subscribers can save $20 on Fubo’s Pro, Elite, and Premier plans
While it doesn’t promise to be the most intriguing game of the day, anything can happen when the two in-state rivals meet. And Memorial Gymnasium has a way of leveling the playing field, so we’ll see how things unfold.
Tennessee football will host Lane Kiffin, Alex Golesh and possibly Arch Manning at Neyland Stadium in the 2026 season.
UT’s opponents for the next four seasons were previously announced. On Dec. 11, the SEC released the dates of every conference game, providing the full picture of the 2026 schedule.
Game times and television designations will be announced later.
Texas will make its first trip ever to Tennessee on Sept. 26. Manning, the Longhorns quarterback, is expected to return for the 2026 season rather than enter the NFL draft. If so, he’ll face the Vols on the home turf of his uncle, legendary quarterback Peyton Manning.
Golesh, the former UT offensive coordinator, is Auburn’s new coach. He will return to Knoxville for an Oct. 3 game.
Alabama will play at Tennessee on Oct. 17, continuing their Third Saturday in October rivalry game.
Kiffin, the polarizing former UT coach, is now coaching LSU after bolting Ole Miss after the regular season ended. He will return to Knoxville for a Nov. 21 game. Three of the five SEC teams visiting Neyland Stadium will have a first-year coach, including Kentucky’s Will Stein on Nov. 7.
Tennessee will play Alabama, Kentucky and Vanderbilt as annual SEC opponents in the league’s new nine-game conference schedule. Its other six opponents will rotate each season. That means each school will play every SEC opponent home and away every four years.
Tennessee will have one open week on Oct. 31 and thus won’t play on Halloween.
Here is Tennessee’s week-to-week schedule for the 2026 season.
Tennessee football 2026 schedule
- Sept. 5: Furman
- Sept. 12: At Georgia Tech
- Sept. 19: Kennesaw State
- Sept. 26: Texas*
- Oct. 3: Auburn*
- Oct. 10: At Arkansas*
- Oct. 17: Alabama*
- Oct. 24: At South Carolina*
- Oct. 31: Open
- Nov. 7: Kentucky*
- Nov. 14: At Texas A&M*
- Nov. 21: LSU*
- Nov. 28: At Vanderbilt*
*SEC game
Adam Sparks is the Tennessee football beat reporter. Email adam.sparks@knoxnews.com. X, formerly known as Twitter@AdamSparks. Support strong local journalism by subscribing at knoxnews.com/subscribe.
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Tennessee announced the signing of graduate student Dragos Cazacu on Wednesday. He is from Constanta, Romania.
“Dragos is someone we believe can translate all of his professional experience and success seamlessly to high level college tennis,” Tennessee associate head coach Matt Lucas said. “He’s a very mature young man who has finished university in Romania, so we know the type of student athlete we are getting. Winning ITF Pro Circuit titles, all while doing his degree back home shows he will transition nicely to Tennessee in January.”
Cazacu competed on the ATP Tour prior to Tennessee. His highest ranking was No. 763 in singles and No. 495 in doubles.
Tennessee will begin its spring men’s tennis season versus ETSU on Jan. 9, 2026 at Goodfriend Tennis Center. SEC competition will begin Feb. 21, 2026 at Kentucky.
The Vols’ home opener in SEC play is scheduled for Feb. 27, 2026 versus Auburn at Goodfriend Tennis Center.
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Tennessee cornerback Jermod McCoy announced Wednesday that he will enter the 2026 NFL Draft. McCoy is a potential top-10 pick in this draft class, despite having missed the entire 2025 season with a knee injury.
A transfer from Oregon State following the 2023 season, McCoy earned first-team All-SEC and second-team All-America honors following his first season at Tennessee, in which he registered four interceptions, nine pass breakups and 44 tackles. However, McCoy suffered an ACL injury in January and did not take the field during the Volunteers’ regular season.
“(E)ven though my time on the field was cut short,” McCoy wrote in a statement shared on social media, “I will forever be grateful for my time here at the University of Tennessee. It has been a true honor, and I’m appreciative for every moment I had in the orange and white.”
McCoy (6 feet, 195 pounds) will be one of the most closely scrutinized prospects during the pre-draft cycle, as interested teams wait to see what his updated medical reports reveal.
The junior ranked No. 9 (and as the No. 1 cornerback) on Dane Brugler’s most recent draft board. He was the 16th pick, by Dallas, in Brugler’s mock draft last week.
Dane Brugler’s immediate reaction
A prospect carrying first-round tape from 2024 but no tape from 2025 is not ideal. That said, McCoy will be more than a year removed from his ACL injury when NFL team doctors examine his knee at the combine in February 2026, to (hopefully) verify full health and no long-term concerns.
The timing of his injury could turn out to be something of a positive, because McCoy should be able to work out and test at some point before the draft, giving him a chance to remind teams why he was considered a potential top-10 pick after last season.
LSU’s Mansoor Delane closed ground with his senior season — he’s made a strong case to be CB1 in this class. But McCoy is very much still in that conversation, assuming the medicals come back clean.
HOW DID HE COME UP WITH THIS? 😲
Tennessee shuts down Vandy in the end zone ❌ pic.twitter.com/aUHZeAWC8i
— ESPN College Football (@ESPNCFB) November 30, 2024
Nick Baumgardner’s scouting report
McCoy was in a really tough spot. A case certainly could’ve been made for McCoy to return to college next year, as he’s played only one full season as a starter in the SEC. And though his 2024 season was pretty great, that performance and 400 or so snaps at Oregon State are all we have to go on here.
Physically, though, McCoy is everything you look for in a high-first-round cornerback. He’s big with very quick feet, natural instincts and terrific ball skills in coverage. Despite not playing a snap this season, McCoy still stacks up as an easy first-rounder on this year’s board, largely because of his physical potential.
Testing will be critical here, and I’m eager to see if McCoy is healthy enough to compete in either the Senior Bowl or Shrine Bowl. He should do as much as he can. We saw a talented player in a similar situation last year when now-Cardinals rookie corner Will Johnson tumbled down the board after not testing or taking part in anything physical during the pre-draft process.
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